Stocks are gapping down this morning, with the Nasdaq poised to open down enough to give up more than the gains it made on Friday. Meanwhile, Russia has closed it’s stock exchange for the day, and maybe longer. I don’t really have much to say that is new about the market today as I have been talking about a weakening stock market and more bullish commodity market now for months. Put the Ukraine news to the side and just realize that the Nasdaq is now way below its 200-day moving average and the action over the past few months appears to be the completion of a stage three topping phase and the start of a new bear market. We saw a sharp drop last week and then a quick rally off a gap down low last Thursday.
I would doubt the market goes straight down to new lows here. Neither is it reasonable to expect it to go to recent highs anytime soon. The most likely scenario is that it drifts for a few weeks between the high set Friday and somewhere above last week’s low and then goes lower. I don’t really see any great trade to make here today.
Commodities continue to act strong. The fact that gold sold off on the start of the Ukraine war and has been able to hold above what was a long-term resistance zone of $1880-$1900 on gold I consider very bullish for both gold and silver. I will have more to say tomorrow.
In case you missed my most in depth analysis last week: