Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER
Crude Oil Monthly Chart Forecast
We believe the current price highs, near $59 to $60, will likely continue as strong price resistance over the next 25+ trading days before a bigger breakdown begins near Mid-October. We expect the price to continue rotating within a fairly narrow range in alignment with our ADL predictions. Our original article suggested a high price target area near $60 from our ADL research. Now that Crude Oil has nearly reached this level, we believe the continued upside opportunity in Crude Oil is limited. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter to get more updates.
Daily Crude Oil Chart
This Daily Crude Oil Chart highlights what we believe will become resistance just below the $60 price level and suggests the $55 to $56 price level may be intermediate support. Thus, we expect the price to rotate a bit lower, possibly into the $54 to $56 level, then stall and rotate further as we transition into the end of September.
Weekly Crude Oil Chart Trend Direction
We don’t expect anything crazy to happen in Oil until later in September or into early October. Our ADL predictive modeling suggests that Crude Oil will peak in October and begin a broader downside move towards levels just below $50. Crude Oil may begin this move a bit earlier than our ADL system predicts because of news or some fundamental data related to oil demand/supply. It is not uncommon for the price to move towards the ADL predicted levels many weeks before or after our Monthly ADL predictions. When we create the Monthly ADL charts, the data represented is based on highly probable levels for the completed month. So, we know that near the month of October or November, Oil should be targeting the sub-$50 level.
Concluding Thoughts:
Ultimately, near the end of 2019 or into early 2020, Oil should be targeting the sub-$30 price level on a larger downside price move. Sub-$30 Oil would likely mean that global supply/demand issues, as well as global economic concerns, would be top-tier issues. We believe the future price moves in Crude Oil will present very clear opportunities for skilled technical traders. Right now, we have to be patient as the price continues to rotate above $55 and below $60 before the real price moves begin to take place.
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