On this edition of Parallax Views, Prof. James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World of MidEast Soccer blog returns to discuss the latest news on Israel/Palestine, specifically the deadly attack on Hamas and what it pertains for the future of Middle East geopolitics. The attack has been described as “Israel’s 9/11” and incurred civilian causalities. Among the issues tackled in this conversation:
– Hamas’ motivations for the attack
– Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morrocco, Egypt, and what this means for Middle East relations and the shattering of many notions about geopolitics in the Middle East
– Israel cutting off access to water, electricity, and food
– Hezbollah in Lebanon
– Netanyahu’s government focus on the West Bank; failure to prevent attack and intelligence and operational failure
– Possibility of escalation into a conflict with Iran
– U.S. decision to send an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean
– Israeli far-right ultranationalist movements led by figures like Religious Zionist Party’s Bezalel Smotrich and Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir
– Netanyahu’s coalition government and the polarization of the Jewish community over the current Israeli government
– Effect of Hamas attack: hardening of anti-Palestinian sentiments in Israel while also calling into question the efficacy of Israeli security forces in the public sentiment
– Relationship between Hamas and Iran; it hasn’t always been a comfortable relationship re: Syria
– Hamas was preparing in the open for a moment like this; the explosion between Hamas and Israel should not be surprising, but breaking through the fence into Israel should be; Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri’s comments about “total war” over the summer
– Question of Saudi recognition of Israel and whether these unfolding events will kill that
– Erdogan’s Turkey and whether it will try to take a role/position as mediators
– Arab social media backlash against Hamas’ way of conducting the attack; Turkish support of Israel on social media and the reasons for it
– Palestine Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas and potential succession struggle
– Possible future negotiation between Hamas and Israel?
– Difference between Hamas and Fatah
– Hamas’ miscalculation on two fronts
– U.S.-Israel relationship rift prior to the attacks; Biden administration
– Israeli blockade of Gaza and occupation of the West Bank
– Occupation cannot be sustained indefinitely
– Biggest risk going forward for Palestinians and Israelis
– The strange points-of-commonality between Hamas and Israeli ultranationalists
– Netanyahu’s warning telling Gazans to leave areas that Israel is targeting; misconceptions about that warning; density of Gaza’s population and importance of that fact
– Israeli and Palestinian trauma
– What will it take to end the conflict?
– Question of failure of the international community in regards to Israel/Palestine
– How will China react to this?
– WWIII?
– James article on the subject of this episode: “The Middle East may never be the same”
