Home Stock Market Commentary Expect Volatility Compression For the Stock Market – Mike Swanson

Expect Volatility Compression For the Stock Market – Mike Swanson

Yesterday, the stock market fell and it fell after what has been close to a week of straight up daily gains. On Sunday, I did a video saying that I thought that the bulls could break through the downtrend line that is on the chart below, connecting all of the highs of the year. It did that, but then fell on Wednseday. In fact the S&P 500 is now overbought with its daily stochastics above 80.

Before I tell you what I think is next, take a look at the chart.

When you see a market go straight up this quickly off of a low that is a very volatile price move.

Typically when you see a short spurt of volatility like that you next get a contraction in volatility.

I’d expect that to happen now for a few weeks days, and maybe even a week.

That means sideways action before a more meaningful move.

In other words, I don’t think the stock market will do much in the next few days.

The real action remains in the commodity markets. Gold stocks are continuing to act stronger than the price of gold.

Take a look at NEM, for example.

I own NEM.

The GDX is the big cap mining stock ETF and the GDX/GLD ratio measures the performance of the GDX relative to the gold metals GLD ETF.

You can see that it is clearly trending up.

The GDX/GLD ratio is confirming the metals run and giving a green light for mining stock buyers.

That’s where the money is, but despite that the masses have zero interest in this sector.

Yesterday, the stocks that got the most attention where GME and AMC.

I talked about that in a live trading update I did Wednesday afternoon.