In the first few weeks of 1999, while everyone was obsessed with internet stocks a massive bear market bottom happened in the price of oil and with oil stocks. The price of oil had been in a bear market for years and I saw signs of a bottom and read stories that people like Bill Gates were taking advantage of it.
I bought a stock with the ticker ATW that paid a huge dividend and went up for years as the price of oil went up and never to those lows ever again.
But I sold that stock a few weeks after I bought it so I missed out on that massive cycle run!
I put too much money into it and sold in order to get into the fad internet stocks that were going up.
So today when I see the likes of a giant bottom I just put a small amount of money to work. It’s just too hard to hold on to big positions.
Let me show you what a past crash bottom looked like and then one that just happened this month.
In the summer of 2015 gold stocks made a final bear market bottom by breaking to news lows and crashing another 10% overnight.
Often big long drawn out bear markets end with a final big dump and that’s what happened. But after the dump comes a massive surge.
This happened with the HUI gold stock ETF on it’s last bear market bottom in the summer of 2015.
Look at how the HUI crashed that July. It actually had been in a bear market for several and that July dumped brought the end to it. It then went into a stage one base for several months before surging in 2016.
Some mining stocks didn’t go sideways after that July dump, but instead went up and up.
There actually was some sort of “bad” news event linked to this drop in gold stocks in the summer of 2015, but today I can’t even remember what it was.
Now look at what the price of corn has done.
Corn and other agriculture commodities have been in a bear market now since 2011, but had a big dump in the first half of May as the trade tensions moved into becoming a real trade war.
CORN dumped and then surged to go through its 200-day moving average and went up another 3+% yesterday.
It looks like a classic case of a bear market ending on
And we got the surge.
I don’t own CORN, but as I explained in yesterday’s Power Investor update I’m involved in agriculture commodities with another ETF.
Most Americans can’t take advantage of an investment opportunity like this – because just like I was obsessed with internet stocks in 1999 they are obsessed with the Apples, and Teslas, and other fad stocks not to mention SPY and have trouble imagine doing anything else.
But I learned my lesson with ATW. When you put just a little money into a potential bottom situation than you can hold for the duration. When you put too much in then you’ll one day get shaken out no matter how good things look.
I also talked a little bit about this situation with Jim Goddard in an interview yesterday you can listen to here:
-Mike
