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My Bet On The Election And The Stock Market – Mike Swanson (011/06/2018)

I haven’t said anything when it comes to the stock market and the election.

However, I have made a bet on it at predictit.org – a website that lets you bet on the election using what are essentially futures contracts.

In 2016 I bet that Trump would win in the final hours.

Last year I bet that the weirdo in Alabama running for the Senate would lose.

I am betting that the Democrats will win the House today.

I think the Republicans will win the Senate, but I’m not betting on it.

However, I’m just doing this with what is fun money – and have not made a single trade in my brokerage accounts based on what I think will happen with the election – because frankly, I don’t think it will have a lasting impact for the stock market trends.

Really I don’t think the sky is going to fall or anything really big is going to happen either way.

If the Democrats win the House they won’t impeach Trump and if the Republicans keep control nothing much different is going to happen for the next twelve months.

The election in 2020 will be more important.

Go vote today – or don’t… it’s up to you – just don’t be upset because I bet that the Democrats will win the House.

That doesn’t mean they are great or bad – I am just looking at the situation objectively and betting on what I think will happen today.  It doesn’t make you evil if you vote Democrat or Republican today no matter what some crazies say.

When it comes to betting – or trading the stock market – you have to look at things objectively and align your positions accordingly.  I am not betting on Democrats, because I want them to win, but because I think they will.

That means with investing you must accept the market trends and adapt to them when they change too.

There are times to increase risks and times to decrease them and now is a time for the latter after the September stock market top.

Last month as things dropped I saw many people predicting that the stock market would rally after the election.

But it bounced last week INTO it.

With the stock market, the S&P 500 dumped hard last month and bounced into the 150 and 200-day moving averages.

This is a key resistance point that is likely to lead to a pivot down – I’m more interested to see where things stand with markets Thursday and Friday then how they react tomorrow.

Meanwhile, a few sectors and stocks are actually breaking away from the market action.

I got this email yesterday from someone who bought my book:

Hey Swanson, I want to be rich, I bought your book thinking it would work I had it for 3 days and I followed your advice to the letter….where is my return, is this book still relevant in 2018? I bought it at half price books for 7.49.

I invested 10 dollars and built it to 45…then lost it and now I’m down to 29 dollars. I challenge you to help me get to a million dollars from the measly 29 dollars that I have…Then I will actually think your legit.

My reply –

I don’t know if your email is real or a joke, but I don’t know how to turn $10 into a million overnight.  I just don’t know how to do that.  You can still make a million though if you keep adding money to and investing in your account as you grow it.  I’m not a get rich quick fast money guy, but more an easy steady guy. Compound interest, good positions, and money management can do wonders over time.

But hey if you took $10 and now have $29 you just about tripled your money!

It sounds like you bought my book Strategic Stock Trading.   That was written almost ten years ago now.

Check out my book The Two Fold Formula.  I did it this year and it focuses on the single best stock trading pattern I have ever used.

To grab it click here.