The stock market didn’t do much yesterday. There was a lot of momentum in many of the popular big cap tech stocks as they rallied hard on Friday and got the Nasdaq back up to a 52-week high.
But so far this week that momentum has not been able to carry over into the rest of the stock market.
Before I get to that you need to know that I moved my website over to a new hosting company yesterday.
It can take a few days for all of the internet service companies around the world to recognize the change so if you don’t see the images in this email and the links aren’t working for you that is why.
This weekend on Sunday I also will be making some key upgrades to the site and there may be glitches until then.
Now check out this chart of the agriculture commodity ETF DBA, which simply has dumped this week.
Agriculture commodities as a whole have failed to really rally this year and got slammed this week.
Seasonally they tend to go up in July and then fade in the Fall, but this hasn’t happened this year.
It means I don’t think DBA and agriculture commodities as a whole are going to be able breakout this year.
As you see from this chart DBA has been in a doldrums for six years now!
I’m watching agriculture commodities as I do plan on actually investing in them one day, because historically the price of agriculture commodities is at the lowest point in human history when compared to stock markets and currencies.
It will turn one day.
The depressed prices are partly a symptom of the fact that we have had distorted markets thanks to super low interest rates that reached their lowest levels in all of human history when we saw negative yields two years ago in sovereign debt from nations such as Germany.
I believe the DOW peak in January is the start of a slow motion generational turn in the markets this year.
This is a macro situation well explained in a video interview series with Financial Times report Rana Foroohar you can watch here.
That is one reason why I made a special PDF report on gold investing Monday:
As for the market averages I still don’t think the S&P 500 and DOW are going to do much the rest of this week.
But some stocks are getting hit again.
Take a look at TSLA for example as has been lagging he market now for over a year.
I am short TSLA (have been short a few months) and convinced that Elon Musk is not going to be able hide his Tesla problems forever.
However, TSLA shares are heavily shorted and that makes the stock prone to big daily moves that attracts daytraders and robots for a few hours whenever Musk hypes.
TSLA had a shareholders meeting yesterday at which Musk again promised get on track to produce 5,000 Model S cars by the end of this month.
But this is a promise he has made before and even at this meeting some expressed doubt.
When a shareholder asked whether he should believe Musk’s production forecasts given his record for being late, Musk joked, “I do have an issue with time. I have a condition. My brother used to say when we were catching the bus for school, he would lie about the time.”
He said, “This is something I am trying to get better at. I am a naturally optimistic person. … I am trying to recalibrate these estimates.” He noted that his technologies eventually are launched, if not on the announced time line.
The news is getting worse and worse for Musk as you can see in today’s top stories before the opening bell.