The American political scene is abuzz with anticipation as Joe Biden is expected to announce his intention to seek re-election. This development raises the possibility of a 2020 election rematch, pitting Biden against Trump once more, despite the palpable distaste exhibited by the electorate.
An NBC poll conducted over the weekend reveals that a mere one in four Americans supports a Biden re-election bid, while only one in three Americans is keen on Trump’s return. It is worth noting that numerous Democratic voters are quietly hoping for a Trump nomination, as his post-2016 tenure has resulted in a succession of losses for the conservative camp. Overall, 38% of respondents describe their sentiment towards a potential Biden-Trump contest as “exhausting”.
A significant factor contributing to the electorate’s lack of enthusiasm is the advanced age of both contenders: one will be 81 and the other 78 on Election Day, setting a record for the oldest U.S. president. The electorate’s disinterest in Trump can be traced to memories of chaos and ceaseless turbulence during his presidency. As for Biden, he has struggled to captivate a majority of Americans, securing victory in 2016 primarily because voters found his opponent even less appealing.
In the event that the 2020 election contenders return for another bout, the forthcoming campaign is unlikely to resemble its predecessor. The previous election was overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, which significantly curtailed large-scale political rallies and expanded voting options. Trump seized upon these changes to allege widespread fraud as the reason for his loss.
The previous face-offs between Trump and Biden on television resulted in two debates. The first was characterized by cacophony and chaos as Trump consistently and incoherently interrupted his opponent. This behavior inadvertently undermined his own attempt to expose the alleged corruption of the Biden family, causing Biden to retort, “Will you shut up, man?”
A potential rematch would see a starkly different landscape. Trump, no longer encumbered by defending his tumultuous pandemic response, could revert to his successful 2016 strategy: decrying the nation’s dire condition, emphasizing external threats (migrants, criminals, and ungodly Democrats), and positioning himself as the sole savior. Biden, in contrast, would have to confront the state of the nation and defend his administration’s record.
Biden’s litany of challenges includes the high inflation impeding economic recovery, an influx of unauthorized migrants at the southern border, a surge in crime persisting from pandemic lockdowns, the war in Ukraine and America’s involvement, unyielding political opposition, and lingering memories of the chaotic 2021 Afghan troop withdrawal. A recent news report concerning a renewed terrorist threats from Afghanistan serves as a potent reminder of these pressing issues, for which Biden could be held accountable.
The question remains whether Biden’s challenges will eclipse his accomplishments, such as labor market recovery and investments in infrastructure and the social safety net. However, in the highly polarized American political landscape, a candidate’s achievements often pale compared to their opponents’ (perceived) missteps.
Rather than dwelling on matters like energy policy or food prices, Biden can focus on Trump’s tumultuous tenure, invoking “Jan. 6” and the latter’s baseless claims regarding the 2020 election. He could also highlight pending criminal investigations and forthcoming lawsuits against Trump.
Trump, on the other hand, is unlikely to defend his failure to enact significant policy changes during his presidency. Instead, he resorts to campaign emails reiterating the alleged superiority of his tenure, accusing Biden, the Democrats, and the Washington bureaucracy of attempting to ruin the nation. He may also criticize potential Republican rival Governor DeSantis of Florida for purported plans to slash social benefits.
This tactic of emphasizing negativity about one’s opponent rather than positive self-promotion is not exclusive to presidential candidates; it is observed across all levels of elected positions. For Biden and Trump, it may be the most effective strategy given that 70% and 60% of surveyed voters do not believe either should serve as the next president. In this scenario, intensifying aversion towards their rival holds the most potential for success.
