To deal with the stock market we have to simply accept the reality that it is in a correction and understand that corrections almost always end in some panic selling - and growing fear among investors who sell on a bottom. So yesterday's drop actually gets us closer to the end of this US stock market correction.
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Here are my most recent posts I have done applying trading strategies to the current market environment.
This morning the S&P 500 is poised to gap down 10 points. All of the news channels today are talking about a new war in Syria.
I got an email from someone asking me how I find the best sectors in the stock market. What I do is look to see which sectors hold up the best or even go up while the broad market pulls back. Once the market bottoms they tend to lead on the next rally. I use TC2000 to do this as I show in this video.
The US stock market has not gone anywhere the past week. It's overbought and could have a pullback at any moment, but I'm not bearish on it for a couple of reasons. First markets all over the world look like they are in a position now to breakout in the next few weeks and go higher, especially markets in Europe. They are consolidating and in a position to breakout and have a big run. Ireland has already broken out and is just floating on up.
As investors though we want to be looking for where the opportunities are. I plan on doing buying in mining stocks, shipping stocks, and maybe some European stock probably in August. Dips in markets bring buying opportunities.
Apple reported earnings last night and they beat analyst expectations. The CEO also said he was going to release new revolutionary products although he wasn't clear on what they would be. As a result people got excited and the stock is trading up 4% this morning. That's a big move for a stock everyone watches and many are obsessed with.
Not much happened yesterday. The S&P 500 closed up two points, however this was the eighth day in a row the stock market went up and people are simply getting mesmerized by it. There are many though that are not in the market and are now getting scared of missing out. They may have gotten shaken out during last month's dip or simply been cautious about the stock market.
According to their latest poll the number of bears in the market are 18.30% and bulls are 48.94% - this is the largest number of people bullish they have found since January 2012. The long-term average of this survey is 39% bullish and 30% bearish.
The us dollar is benefiting today from talk the past few days from members of the European Central Bank and Bank of London who made statements to the effect that they are not going to tighten monetary policy and in fact may even lower interest rates. The rise in the dollar is probably contributing to weak action in gold before the open today.
According to Reuters:
I have gotten some emails last week from people wondering if I am still bullish on Europe, because many of the European markets have pulled back the past few weeks and have actually underperformed the S&P 500 so far this year.
For instance I got this email:
What this bounce does is make it likely that the market will not put on a final end to this correction for a few weeks. My guess is two weeks. Fake bounces trap more people into a correction and provide fuel for further selling - thereby making them continue longer.
Once or twice a year you get it a correction like this and they make for great times to take new investment positions when they end. When you buy after the market rallies for awhile you eventually get dragged into a correction and lose money. But when you buy near a bottom you can hold and make money. The problem is few people can do it.
We are now in a full blown market correction. You can divide corrections into two halves. In the first part of a correction most people don't believe there is a correction. So when the market has up days they buy in and there is nothing that causes people to buy more than a DOW up 200 day. You see they look for bounces off support to buy and big rallies convince them. Then when the market goes down if someone tells them there is a correction they curse at them.
The drop is due to one simple fact - the US stock market made a peak a over a month ago and has been in a correction. Corrections end in panic selling and it is starting.
I am not convinced that the move of the past two days represents the beginning of a new big rally in the market that will take it through its May highs and beyond. I know its tough to doubt the market after it has a big up day and everyone gets excited, but I have not seen the things that typically come at the end of a correction.
I just did this podcast with Olivier Tischendorf of www.tischendorf.com/. Olivier is an independent trader based in Germany who has been trading the financial markets since 1999, using technical analysis and trading rules. In this interview we talked about his trading style and some of the sectors and stocks he is watching now.
Jim Rogers gives a Lecture at Baliol College, Oxford.
Yesterday I made the comment that I thought if the stock market were to bounce again off of its 50-day moving average(it fell down to it again Tuesday) that the market would likely take weeks to put in a bottom, however if it fell through that support level the correction would likely speed up and come to an end next week.
Yesterday the stock market dumped. This morning the Japanese stock market is down 6%. We are in a market correction. They happen. Last month people thought the stock market was going to go up forever. Now they are starting to get worried.
Rallies come and go and so do corrections. Corrections cause people to lose money. People are right to want to use them as buying opportunities, but they don't know how to do it.
This morning the stock market is poised to gap down on the opening and put an end to the two day bounce in the stock market. It appears another leg down in the correction that began in mid-May is about to begin.
The market is likely to head higher in the near term, but new highs can't be trusted, said Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
When momentum fades rallies get sold. So yesterday the markets gapped up strong and then gave up most of the gains by the end of the day. Today the US stock market is poised to gap down towards its lows of last week.
The Japanese stock market just lost 7% of its value today. It's economy is a basket case and central bankers there have pledged to go on a mad money printing operation. The country has a debt to GDP ratio over 200% which puts it at a high risk of defaulting on its debts if its bond yields go up.
Today VIP announced that it is going to give its shareholders some extra grub. Today it announced that it is going to give all of its shareholders an extra 79 cents per share dividend and reaffirmed guidance on its annual 80 cents per share dividend. All I can say is yes! That's a 22% overall dividend for 2013!
In this wide ranging video Jim Rogers notes that never before in history has every central bank in the world been engaged in an easy money policy at the same time. Rogers is still very bullish on gold and commodities and owns shares in Russia and Japan.
The Investors Intelligence Survey released this morning showed a jump in the number of people bullish in the market to 52% while the number of bearish respondents are 19.4%.