Interest rates on US treasury bonds have been falling over the past few months. As a result bond ETF TLT has been going up. This doesn't seem to make any sense though and has the experts all confused.
It is more than just a recession going on. There are big structural changes occurring and if people adapt to them they can do well and thrive.
The fear mongering on CNBC never ends. The other day they aired a clip by a casino lobbyist who opposes states that are making online poker playing legal.
Not enough people are signing up for Obama care. So as a result some smart people in government decided to put together a TV infomercial to encourage people to sign up.
There were only 74,000 created and it was revealed that well over 300,000 people left the labor force in December and simply gave up on the idea of finding a job that could sustain them.
According to Bloomberg economists are now pushing Fed "tapering" of its QE money printing operation out to March of 2014.
Cramer almost looks like he is crying in this video. In reality I think his comments are a little extreme in the short-term.
Surprise! Yesterday the Congress and the Obama administration agreed to reopen the government and raise the national debt. They agreed to kick the can down the road in regards to getting the debt under control though. It's good that this is all over now.
Any reduction in QE if it even happens at the next FOMC meeting in September will be so small that it will be merely a simple token PR show for Bernanke's benefit so that he'll be able to claim after he retires that he wasn't just a mad money printer - "see I reduced QE!"
Today the market is gapping up just a little on news that the easy money Prime Minister of Japan has been re-elected. Gold is up above 1,300 an ounce. US investors are happy with the markets at near new highs even though individual stocks have been getting hit hard the past few days on bad earnings reports. On Friday Microsoft fell over 7% on disappointing earnings. Google blew up too and this morning McDonald's is posting dismal results.
The largest employer in the entire world is the U.S. department of defense with over 3 million employees. The biggest private sector employer in the United States is Wal-Mart. After that is temp agency Kelly Services and then McDonalds.
I'm not bearish on the market, but I take what I hear on the CNBC echo chamber with a grain of salt too.
In reality even though new jobs were indeed created they were not enough to have a meaningful impact on the economy, because the new number of jobs being created is no higher than population growth.
On Friday the United States government released its preliminary 1st quarter GDP report for the first three months of 2013. It showed that the economy grew at a rate of 2.5%, which was almost a full percentage point below what economists were predicting and a rate that is not fast enough to cause real employment to grow as it smaller than the rate of population growth.
This lecture by David Stockman was presented at the Mises Circle in Manhattan: "Central Banking, Deposit Insurance, and Economic Decline.
Roberts writes, "the reason that investor's perform so poorly over long periods of time is that investors continually extrapolate current trends (reality) indefinitely into the future (belief). It is in that moment, when "contrarian investment views" are regularly disregarded as irrational fears, that a new "reality" presents itself."
Last week Peter Schiff appeared on Fox Business Channel as a guest and talked about the Cyprus debt collapse. After he talked the producer took him off the air and then had Lou Dobbs rebut him - and then personally smear him. Of course they did not allow Schiff to answer the smears.
President Obama did an interview on ABC news the other night and stated that there is no debt crisis. He said that at the rate the debt is growing "in fact, for the next 10 years, it’s gonna be in a sustainable place.”
Here's something I never knew - if you are an American you can move to Puerto Rico and pay practically no capital gain taxes no matter how much you make.
So what does the DOW making a new all-time high yesterday really mean?
This is a video that has gone viral on Youtube. In my view this is partly a function of the growth of industries tied to the government that operate outside of the free market that other businesses and everyone else has to live in. These are industries that are dependent on government spending and cost+plus contracts such as the military-industrial complex and industries that are handed money in bailouts and Fed money printing such as the entire financial industry.
I just read this email question I got:
"mike, thanks for sharing so generously your opinions on the market! i am in metals. mlps and reits. my lowest high "dividend" stock pays about 8%. i feel that these high dividend stocks are doomed due to the coming seemingly set in stone dividend tax on high earners. what do you think? thanks!"
Last week we heard that the September employment rate fell to 7.8% thanks to the creation of about 114,000 jobs. Some are crying fowl and see this "good news" as a manipulation or lie to help Obama out before the November election. The reality is that it is meaningless news and this chart shows how the unemployment rate fell and why the number people out of work is really higher than the unemployment rate makes it sound in this economy - and has been for years. Simply put less people are being counted as being a part of the labor force: