Frequented Asked Questions:
As the outlook for the European financial situation remains ambiguous, most Wall Street analysts believe that the US dollar will continue to rise in value against the euro in 2012. Moreover, the recent slowing down of manufacturing activity in China and the growing likelihood of a recession in Europe have also made many investors flock to safe haven currencies, with the US dollar generally seen as the most attractive currency.
In 2011, crude prices averaged about $95.09 per barrel, while the U.S. Energy Department expects prices to rise further next year to about $98 per barrel. According to a Reuters December poll of 32 oil analysts and consultants, most of them are of the view that crude oil would average around US$105 in 2012, which is not too far from this year’s record high average near $111.
I just did a podcast with Victor Riesco of www.globaltradingpad.com.
In this podcast we talked about today's juicy gap up opening and what it means for the market going forward. So far he still sees no sign of the end of the stock market rally that started in October and is optimistic on the market.
Victor also talked about the action in emerging markets, copper, and some specific trades that he is doing right now.
As we get into the end of the year, more and more analysts and money managers announce their market predictions for the next year. Every year there are a wide range of views that range from the S&P rising to 1,500, to the S&P crashing and burning. The point is, you must take these predictions with a grain of salt. Analysts said that 2011 was going to be a great year with nice gains closing out the year. What they did not foresee was the European debt crisis and the US debt gridlock. That is why you have to be cautious when analysts are touting bountiful returns every year.
I just did this podcast with Andy Emerson about his outlook for the stock market in 2012. We also talked about gold and the recent market rally in stocks.
Andy and I co-managed a hedge fund together for several years and are partners in several different business ventures. He also writes for this website in the premium WSW Power Investor members area.
I just did this podcast with David Bannister of www.markettrendforecast.com in which we discussed his outlook for the stock market and gold.
David uses trend psychology and Elliot Wave theory to understand and forecast the moves in the financial markets. He sees some critical trend changes occuring as we enter the end of this year in several markets.
I just did a podcast with Victor Riesco of www.globaltradingpad.com.
In it I asked him the big question - is the stock market going to breakthrough its recent highs? Each of the past three times I've talked with Victor the S&P 500 gone up to its 200-day moving and then pulled back down off of it. Will it make it through this time?
Last time we talked both of us were bullish on the dollar and bearish on euro. I asked him for an update on his views in regards to both.
t did a podcast with Mike "Tiny" Saul of www.stockmarkettrendsx.com.
In it we talked about the recent sideways action in the market and when it may come to an end. Tiny mentioned that he sees weakness in financials and talked about some stocks that are showing strength in this market such as HSTM.
t did a podcast with Dave Skarica of www.addictedtoprofits.net.
In it we talked about the recent action in the market and whether a Christmas rally is still on or not. Dave made note of how money is flowing out of emerging markets and into the United States at the moment and gave his thoughts on gold and gold stocks.
In early morning trading the DOW Jones Industrial Average has managed to rally over 230 points and the S&P 500 is trading up over 25 points.
This has brought a 2.35% and 2.27% move in the DIA and SPY exchange traded funds, which track the two major US stock market averages.
The moves has been inspired by some positive developments in Europe for a change. Spain saw high demand for a government debt auction while economic data points to a rebound in consumer confidence in Germany.
This brings the S&P 500 and the SPDR SPY ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY), which tracks it at an interesting trading position.
I just did a Podcast with Mike "Tiny" Saul of www.stockmarkettrendsx.com about the current action in the stock market. Tiny bases most of his trading on technical analysis and is a trading coach and mentor based in New Jersey. In the interview we talk about what the charts are saying about the market now and his plan to profit from different market scenarios he sees likely going forward.
I have some good news for you when it comes to the stock market.
Good news? You probably find that hard to believe.
Well, that's the point. Investors got extremely pessimistic over the market when it broke through its August lows at the beginning of this month. Of course it has since put on a rally, but despite that fact investors are even more negative over the market now than when they were when it temporarily broke down.
A lot of eyes were watching the Slovakian Parliament around the closing bell today as they voted on the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The first vote failed to pass the pending legislation, but members of the opposition party have indicated that they will vote for the bill in a second scheduled vote.
There is nothing more fun than a new year. As the calendar flips over to a new year I always feel like I am turning the page and looking forward to what is to come. And with the stock market we had a nice long weekend and time spent with families over the holidays to take a bit of a break from it to get us even more ready.
But now it is time to get back to work.
Hey this is Kevin. If you are new to the site I work with Mike and Andy - we all share an office together and share trading ideas together. I post my thoughts on the site too.
I did this video after the close for you. You might have to turn up the volume on it, had some trouble with my microphone:
I just put together this video for you...some points
1)Market sentiment now is WILDLY bullish.
2)Market likely to peak out in the next few weeks - probably around mid-January earnings season - and pullback 10% or so and bottom in February/March.
3)Gold stocks currently lagging market, but will likely bottom out ahead of the next bottom in the market and perform well again after wards.
Last week the stock market fell in the beginning of the week and then bounced in the last few days of the week going into this holiday weekend and rumors of a deal to bail out Ireland. Over the weekend details of an IMF and European Union bailout of Ireland were released, helping to fuel a pre-morning gap up in the US markets. European markets gapped up hard on the news, but appear to be selling it.
Today the S&P shed 1.7%, the DOW fell over 175 points, and the Nasdaq dropped over 45 points as the market continued to decline in what has now became a six day correction. The drop was led by selling in commodities and gold stocks as those stocks and sectors had been among the strongest in the stock market for the past several months and are experiencing profit taking.
Bonds ended up having a strong day as the TLT 20-year treasury ETF gained 2.4%. The dollar also managed to rally 0.90% in today’s trading action.
I am still out of town and without my normal laptop so can't post charts - but yesterday we saw reversals everywhere in the market - in gold, commodities such as agriculture, oil, and in stocks I'm looking to buy such as YONG. By reversals I mean stocks that opened up, went up sharply, and then came down to close on lows. You can see this clearly with DBA and GDX for example. There also was weakness in the S&P 500 and DOW - all of this came with a nice move higher in the dollar - the only thing that didn't move in the opposite way it has been the past few weeks are bonds.
Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 18 points while the DOW dropped 165 points. The sell-off was led by big cap tech stocks and IBM and Apple in particular as traders dumped those two stocks after they announced earnings. Looking at the news stories this morning the financial press is focusing on this "bad news" as a reason the market fell.
Last week we had the first week of third quarter earnings. Most of the stocks that reported earnings that beat estimates - such as Intel - gapped up on their earnings news and fell. There were some bad spots too especially in banking and finance stocks as mortgage write-offs continue. GE for instance rallied into its earnings release and then got smashed on Friday when it announced an eighteen percent drop in profits. GE ending up gapping down and closed the day down 5%.
However, Google shares went up on its Friday earnings news thanks to a massive morning gap up.