"Wipe that smile off your face"


http://www.businessinsider.com/byron-wien-smartest-man-in-the-world-2012...

The words of the smartest man in Europe about the future.

Dark Ages, here we come.

Good life

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Comments

Good article Musker--I think I have to agree with the thrust of the opinion.The governments of the western countries and the developed world are going to try the conventional remedies to forestall the inevitable; probably to no avail. At least the "smie" is not going to hide gold in his back yard -but he will buy energy, some stocks & gold. What concerns me is that we don't know how weak the U.S. banks really are. Will there be runs on these banks.?? Is your brokerage account going to be worthless or inaccessible?? HMMM...Nobody seems to want to deal with that question or at least I haven't found much substantive discussion anywhere with regard to this area of concern.
I remember on this site in Sept & Oct. '08 some of the folks were not able to trade or access their accounts for a day or two. That was right in the heart of the financial crisis. This is what is a bit concerning, if we have some sovereign defaults or large bank defaults.
Best of trading,
Barry

I was reading Armstrong's blog on http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/, it' free.

He says there will "not" be any hyperinflation in Europe or the USA. He says there is a difference between a "core economy" and a "peripheral economy" (whatever that is). The PE's can hyperinflate, but CE's will just default and implode. The really bad part is that imploding causes a 2 step back approach in the progress of civilization, ie it's the end of the world as we know it. So it will be the religious zelots time to prosper again with many demagods to pick from, not to mention another round of the spanish inqusition. But, there is hope! We could just blow ourselves to smithereens and then the reptiles will have another go at it.

Good life

Peripheral Economies belong to countries/political entities that don't matter, when it comes to paychecks automatically deposited to members of the vast majority defined by Core Economies, those whose labors fuel planning for the future. The systems in place run smoothly on promises to pay on time, and such promises that deliver. This is the huge advantage that paper holds over gold-as-currency. Paper moves quickly and efficiently, via electronic transfers, throughout the economic systems that fuel growth and expectations of growth. Peripheral Economies have no significant participation in this aspect of day-to-day working, producing, and delivering products demanded by our current world.

There will be no imploding or hypering in our lifetimes, Musker. Maybe never, but certainly not in our lifetimes. The paper system is imbedded in all of our newly-discovered technologies of money transfer. As things sit during OUR remaining days (and, I assume, you have more left than I do, your being younger...), gold is a threat delivered against Keynesian/monetarist assumptions about how the vast majority of working stiffs perceive their futures. Will monetary authorities REALLY have the balls to brazenly inflate away real debt to the point where paper cash becomes worthless or nearly worthless? If you are worth hundreds of thousands or even millions, it doesn't matter. You own enough cash to get through the unimaginable. If you are worth billions and hundreds of billions (where is the line of demarcation? I have no precise idea... does ANYONE), you own some gold, just in case the unimaginable happens. And that is why the bid is always in for gold. Truly BIG money just can't afford to take chances. This, of course, includes many central bankers. In the game of ultimates, mere millionaires don't matter. Somewhere up in the 12-zero-and-beyond categories, holders of paper DO matter. Private and public.

This is why I don't even concern myself with end game theories. They just don't matter, and strategies catering to them can only create needless anxieties among those of us who have lives to live.

Armstrong knows the same things about Armageddon that you and I know. No-things. Neither of us has ever seen one. Neither of us ever will.

Bet on what the great mad poet William Blake referred to as the "same dull round." Things heat up, then cool down. When such things involve the paper vs. gold debate, gold will always track paper higher, in the big serpentine movements of shit through the lower bowels that comprise what we know of History. There has NEVER been a "core economy" Armageddon in human history. Never. Does anyone want to bet on one NOW? Good fucking luck. Many minor dinks ("peripheral economies") have had their currencies puked and shat out by the World digestive processes since the beginnings or writings about such things. But never a core economy. Especially not now. The threat is on, and too many computerized trigger fingers are poised to react to whatEVER the threat brings down the road.

Repeat. There will be no hyperinflation among "core economy" fiat currencies. THAT has already been hedged against by money that matters.THAT is why gold is 1600 and MAY double from here. And, there will be no deflation. It's just not necessary, these days. Meanwhile, follow the trends, and buy low and sell high. All this Armageddon talk will only distort your OWN mental CPU to the point where you start making bad decisions. THEN, you're fucked. And you probably deserve it.

Good luck. Leave ultimates to the Philosophers and Poets. And (remember) THEY don't own gold. They own bank accounts. They can afford to piss around with "ultimate" scenarios. They have nothing to lose. You do. Happy 4th.

You are so right about all the Armageddon talk. I find myself being sucked in from time to time and it definately affects my trading. I just recently fell into all the deflation chatter I have been reading and didnt buy AUY below 15 and GG below 36 when my gut was screaming at me to nibble. The GOLD bull is buckin and snortin trying to throw off as many as possible before he makes his mad dash higher. I'm still 60% long in my trading acct as well as 75% long in IRA account so I still have alot of skin in the game. I'm just pissed that I waivered at crunch time and didnt buy.

Happy Trading,
Murph I

Thanks Old Sage for the explaination of a PE. For some reason I could not grasp Armstrong's definition.

I think what it all comes down to, that echo's in your above essay as well as what Armstrong harps upon, is "confidence".

If enough peasants and elites believe this is just another turn of the cycle dial and things will get better after they have gotten worst, then your argument will have good merit to it. But, if those same people say "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me", then confidence in something greater and better than oneself is lost and the end is just around the corner.

You seem to still have confidence in your fellow human animal to do the right thing, the overall good thing. I do not. This does not mean that I believe there was some evolutionary fundamental psychological mind trip that changed the nature of the human animal in the course of it's development that made us more self gratifing control freaks. I believe we have always been this way. It's just with tools like the internet and weapons of mass destruction that the truth really comes out. We have not changed one I-OH-TA. Which means one day our tools will be finally good enough to end it all.

The debt is too big, and it is getting bigger. The derivative market is too big, and it is getting bigger. Default will happen. It has too. It's the only viable way out. Our path will follow Europe, and then Japan. If those two do not tumble, then you are right and I am wrong. And we will both live long enough to see what happens.

Armstrong said the Roman empire, a core economy, imploded. To which, the Dark Ages followed. If that does happen, I doubt I will want to live through that.

But, when all is said and done, there is nothing like great live theater.

Good life

He might be the smartest guy ( although how in the world you determine that?), but there are no new ideas in this article, is a rehash of the same old stuff.

I thought extreme intelligence was supposed to be accompanied by some fresh and new look on things.

Best, Abe

There are no new ideas in this article but does there have to be? What if it unfolds as he says. It seems there are few options when countries are underwater in debt. All they can do is keep the balls in the air, and they are good at it. The world may need to reset, but it's hard to bet against the creativity of financial engineering. This could be dragged out for years to come.

New ideas, or confirmation on what is enetiable?

That guy just's reinforces what I have been reading. And if that guy is a smarty pants, then it makes the conscenses outcome more viable.

He says Energy, gold and some high rated tech stocks. Burry, that guy who I posted the site too regarding his address to the recent graduates, wants water available farm land and gold. Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model predicts big money moving from Public to Private Debt. All are avoiding governments, Federal, State and local. That speaks volumes to me.

What does it say to you Abe?

Good life

Armstrong may or may not be right, but he does bother me a bit. It's as if he tries to obfuscate his writings to make them intentionally dense. Am I wrong about this? Maybe I'm the dense one, but I don't think so.

For instance, in the second paragraph of this blog there is a sentence that reads, "This is also why the stock market has never peaks with the same rate of interest twice.” Now what the fuck does that mean?? I hate to make the comparison, but Armstrong is reminiscent of the grand equivocator himself, Mr. Alan Greenspan. Him speak with forked tongue, Kimosabe. I’ve got degrees in economics and finance plus 30 years experience in the markets but still find Armstrong challenging. Maybe that’s why I continue to read him, but he does leave me scratching my head sometimes.

You compare Armstrong to Greenspan in word speak, and then you use a word like "obfuscate"? SHHHHHEEESH! I had to look that up. Just pulling your leg Joe, although I still had to look it up.

My take is that Armstrong has to write for all kinds of people. And since he is a VERY busy guy, I think he has to take liberties.

If I can pick up something new from reading him, I feel it/he was worth it. I do have some problems with him too. I am still trying to figure out his histogram chart he posts now and then. And then there is something strange about his cycle date. If memory serves, he said the move from Public to Privat Debt should have sarted in 2011 I believe. But US bonds keep going up. Maybe this is a result of the Feds. I hear they are the largest owner of public debt today coming in at 61%. And then I hear that Bianco, the bond guru, say the big guys are buying bonds, but corp bonds only. So he may still be right, but the effect is still hidden.

I would not go all the way to compare Armstrong to that traitorist slime Greenspan though. Greenspan keeps saying he was wrong, but it was impossible for him/anyone to see it coming. Well, then disband the Fed since they are of no use, and I still have not heard him give back any of the government awards or his knightship. Just more BS from a master traitorist BSer.

Good life

And what is the thing with pi? What am I suppose to get from that? Public to private debt? Histograms? I guess I mostly appreciate actionable information, not the pi in the sky type Armstrong often dispenses. Yet I too continue to read him.

Agree with you concerning Mr. Greenspan. I trust his nightmares are vivid.

First off, "the pi in the sky". Ouuuuu, you are one bad boyshiek Joe. Good one.

As far as "PI" goes, I think it is Armstrong's answer to what is the nature of the human animal. If the nature of us critters does not change, then "PI" will never change either. Thus one can predict, with good results, "when" a major historic event will happen.

As far as I can tell, the "what" part of that equation is seen only in hind sight, but I may be wrong.

Does Greenspan have nightmars? Do socialpaths have nightmares?

Good life

Of course Greenspam is a traitor; one has to be, or become, a traitor nowadays in order to enter the Halls of Power. Of course he knew better, as his earlier writings on sound money indicate.

One must take Armstrong, along with everyone else, with a grain of salt. He has been in a cage (literally) for many years, and every model must fail sooner or later, no matter how successful it was during its peak of perfection. Hell, you should even take GERALD with a grain of salt. Especially if you and he are both drinking Tequila.

W

Wullow, it's like that old saying "history always repeats/rhyms."
If that is the case, then there has to be a constant somewhere like the speed of light. Armstrong's PI or ECM might just be that.

I give that guy credit though. His psychological makeup sure looks as if it still has it's integerty. Kudo's to Armstrong.

I am a Brandy man. Somehow, to me, having a worm at the bottom of a bottle of sprits is not conducesive to libation or intoxication.

Good life

Armstrong needs a hysterectomy, but applied to the brain synapses that drive his fingers on the keyboard. He is desperate to continue his guruship. Yet, he can't stand the prospect of making (ta da!) the "big call" and being wrong. So he continues to, well, obfuscate. No oracle in his right mind would EVER speak clearly. If he did, who would need him? I give him credit only for recognizing that gold is a currency and in the game. Otherwise, he is just another bullshit artist trying to protect his reputation. I am becoming increasingly impatient with his waffling and pseudo-speak. Sweet Jesus. He's starting to sound like Steve Liesman. SAY WHAT YOU FUCKING MEAN or simply shut up.

I sent for his 2012 Gold report. In it he has a tech look and a computer model report on the yearly, quarterly, monthly and weekly view. It has a little summary, support and resistances levels, trading ranges, his histograms and trading position(s) on each. It also covers silver, plat and plad (no copper). It seems to be parcially limited. The weekly only goes out a couple of months, but the others go all out. Old Sage, you may find what you want in that.

Is it worth $300? If you are into trading PM's, cycles and/or Armstrong's writings, then I would say it is worth a shot. If your eye is solely on the prize (money), then there is much better places to put your money in my opinion.

What one gets on the open net is more of a historic Armstrong view. Once in awhile he gives some particulars. Personally, I think he is still getting his organization together. So the best is yet to come.

Good life


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