Silver lacking substance...


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Anonymous (not verified)
Silver lacking substance...

Jon Nadler has some great info which may explain the poor performance - seems to me China is quite apt to ride this one out as I have sated before and I will state again. They are an industrialized state and they DO NOT want silver to rise. It does not make it easy to cost when your raw material costs keep rising.

Thanks to Jon Nadler for this info below: visit Kitco for the story.

Here is a finding that flies squarely in the face of rosy projections that China will –somehow-be the salvation for the silver market, owing to its putatively “insatiable” demand for everything. Read on. Standard Bank (SA) commodity market analysis issued this morning correctly points out that silver demand is heavily (60%) dependent on industrial offtake (along with investment participation by speculators). Since silver demand has been helped by the fact that China had become a net importer of the metal in the period of from 2008 to 2011, many have jumped onto the bandwagon that believes that which we mentioned above.

However, it turns out that, at the moment, that country is filling the approximately 1,400 tonnes of metal it needs to fill the supply/demand gap it faces by drawing down internal stockpiles rather than importing silver. There has been a sharp decline in SGE silver premiums (from $4 per ounce to about a tenth of that recently) and there is evidence that Chinese imports of the white metal have also declined.

Thus, the SB team concludes that while silver has scope to trade back up near $40 again, it might not do so unless China finishes de-stocking, and that the current quarter might not allow for prices much above the $35 level actually.

I have to say I agree - we appear to have peaked and a reversal is the most likely scenario rather than the upside. Does anyone see it any different? I have read other articles and studied charts and it just does not have volume or momentum to break 35 this quarter. As I said we may revise the temporary top to be reached in February and it certainly appears that was the case.

Cheers.

Zheng Guo
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Joined: 11/15/2010 - 15:30
I don't know about all that.

I don't know about all that. Nadler is one of the last 'pundits' I would base anything on. I stopped reading him several years ago - he writes way too much and with his supposedly clever titles makes me think he writes mostly because he has to put out a daily column . . . when really he has nothing of substance to say.

And I think the Silver chart, with its nice double bottom, looks bullish, possible very bullish.

-GZ

el stevedore
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Joined: 08/16/2011 - 22:19
i hadn't even noticed that

i hadn't even noticed that double bottom at 26.15, thanks for pointing that out GZ

rileysmith44
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Joined: 11/14/2010 - 12:15
Kaibo appreciate posts

Used to wonder about your eloquent style but now enjoy rather than question. I do know that Zheng is high on my list for intelligence and posts common sense. I trust the China connection from her. As a side i bought a mini silver contract just now @ 34.195. Not big play but will hold ad nauseum. Good luck Riley

kaibo888 (not verified)
...

Thanks Riley,

I am learning a lot from folks here. Nadler quoted a ripper yesterday. He quoted some guy who said that gold and silver are 'bearish.' If what we have had since January is a bear, I am looking forward to the bull. (TIC)

I just listened to Mike & Ike chatting about markets & they are talking about a correction in stocks. I think we are certainly anticipating a correction. I am just a bullion day trader and a long term physical bullion holder. Futures are out of the ballpark for me but I glean a lot of info from the great folk here.

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