The Stock Market Rallies Ahead of Election Night, But Will Clinton Win? - Mike Swanson (11/08/2016)
I have seen CNBC talking heads and traders I monitor on Twitter claim that a Clinton election will be good for the stock market.
So after the news hit that the FBI had found nothing new in Clinton’s email mess the stock market futures shot up.
The market gapped up and trading robots and traders chased the stock market higher all day.
The market has been dead money trading on no volume and slowly trending down since August and stock market bubble bull types do not know how to make money when the market does that.
So I saw a lot of them on Twitter get excited Monday.
When Trump showed strength going into last weekend I saw some of the Twitter hedge fund guys and CNBC talking heads I follow (yeah I monitor CNBC people on Twitter) lash out at Trump voters as the market dipped a bit.
They hate Trump and fear Trump voters in Twitter posts, because they seem to think that Clinton will make stocks go up and Trump will make the stock market fall.
That seemed to be true for the market yesterday, but will it be true tomorrow or next week?
We’ll deal with the aftermath of the election when it is over, but I personally am not afraid, because I do not think the world is going to end Wednesday morning no matter who wins.
Really this is only one day in our lives.
The election itself is part of much bigger and deeper trends that don’t make for good sound bytes.
This is the start of political alignment going on that is going to play out for years.
Here is the best article about the election I read this year that explains all of this:
But who is going to win today?
The voters who decide Presidential elections are the swing voters.
Now 30-40% of the population simply won’t vote, because they do not believe it makes one difference one way or the other for them.
They think it’s all theater show so they will stay home.
Or they stay home because they think that both are worse.
Now about 20% of the population is a hard core Republican and another 20% is a hard core Democrat.
Fox News caters to the Republicans and MSNBC, CNN, and the other channels cater to the Democrats and are telling them to vote for Clinton by telling them that Trump is the most dangerous man in the world and that Trump voters are “deplorable” trailer trash types.
The liberal HuffingtonPost website ran a story last night saying that Donald Trump is Adolph Hitler:
I know people voting for Clinton and know people voting for Trump, but I do not know any Nazis.
This type of fear mongering is deplorable.
Trump has his flaws, but this type of irrational fear messaging has been resonating with the hedge fund and Wall Street types I see on Twitter who have contempt for the rest of the country. They fear that people will get mad at the banks or the Federal Reserve and that the money printing game that keeps the stock market alive so that they can make money will come to an end.
Corporate CEO’s are making fortunes by pumping up stocks with stock buybacks and selling their shares.
For them Clinton represents continuity and that is why Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks are fully funding Clinton in this election.
The important thing for tonight though is that hard core party voters show up and vote again and again no matter what flaws their candidate may have.
Another 10% of the voting population is “independent.”
These types of people tend to prefer third parties whether they be Green Party people or the Libertarian people.
Sometimes these people will vote for one of the main parties, but even in this election 5% of the national votes are likely to go to a third party candidate.
I’m in this camp but am likely to go to one of the main parties when I go to vote this morning just so you know where I am coming from.
The point is that these percentages of votes going to one party or the other are fairly fixed in each election.
There is another final 10% of voters though that are classic “swing voters” who do in fact change their votes from one election to another.
What I want to talk about today is what motivates them to vote.
These types of people do not really have any political ideology or solid belief system.
They vote because they like to vote!
And they often decide the outcome of elections.
They like to vote because it makes them feel like they are playing a big role in the system!
But they just don’t know a lot, don’t pay attention too much, and don’t really care to know what is happening.
But they tend to vote for the person who appears to be the strong leader, because they view them as a Godlike Kinglike figure to trust and believe in.
This is why incumbents have a natural advantage in every single election.
The swing voter is simply familiar with the incumbent for having seen the person for a long time and comes to like them for that one fact.
They actually fear change, because change may upset the system.
So they naturally trust the incumbents.
The voters want someone who appears to be “Presidential” more than anything in a big election like today.
This is why Obama beat Romney so bad in 2012.
Romney had a disadvantage by not being the incumbent.
Hurricane Sandy also hit right before election day, which gave Obama a chance to shine as the great leader.
I never thought Romney had a chance, because I did not think the swing voters would move to him.
But I have no idea who these swing voter types perceive is the stronger leader.
I have no idea at all.
Do they want Queen Hillary?
The polls are tight and there is no incumbent.
Clinton has pledged to jam up taxes and has a plan that will practically eliminate long-term capital gains for most people investing in the stock market – hedge funds though will be able to use the “carried interest” provision to keep their taxes low.
Big Wall Street banks and hedge funds have been her primary source of campaign funds in this election so she will continue to prioritize their interests over those of the rest of the county just as her husband did.
It was under him that Glass-Steagall was eliminated.
In the past a lot of campaign money to Democrats used to come from Labor Unions.
Now almost none of it does.
It’s all finance and Wall Street.
You can play around on this site and see the donors for yourself:
Trump though has at times said things off the rails and the media has used things he has said to build him up into a demon figure.
And he is a wild card in a system heading towards a cliff.
Clinton will not change that direction - and in fact says not only that no change is necessary - but has promised in speeches given to Goldman Sachs as revealed by Wikileaks that she will help them as much as possible.
Can Trump change the country's direction?
Right now Trump is pretty much tied in Florida. If he wins there and in NC, which seems likely, then the election could be decided by less than five electoral votes.
He is losing momentum in the national polls, but gaining momentum in FL and even in MI.
We will see what happens tonight.
We will see who the swing voters believe is the greater leader and who is not.
But this is all only one day in our lives.
A few weeks ago I put out a video to express my thoughts and feelings about the election.
It’s called Today’s World Rests on an Empire of Debt.
You can watch it below this post.
Now I want you to note that one thing I have not done over the years is say hardly one bad word about President Obama.
In fact in 2011 I did a post in December saying that if Romney got the Republican nomination that I would pick Obama over him myself personally.
It made people mad as some Republican types assumed that meant I had to be one of those 20% voting robot Democrat types.
Last Fall I could see Trump rising up and taking the Republican nomination and did a report earlier this year breaking down the psychological persuasion tactics he was using to do just that – and he crushed them.
I wasn’t endorsing Trump and pointed out some big flaws in this report, but I wanted to understand what was happening and share my thoughts about it with you.
That’s all I want to do and no matter who wins this election politics is changing in front of our eyes that few understand right now.
I want to understand what is going on – in the financial markets and in the rest of our world today.
The most disturbing thing about this election is not the individual candidates themselves, but the way that the media has “reported” on the election.
The political news shows have descended to the level of CNBC stock market reporting.
There is very little real analysis and understanding happening in our TV media it’s all about sound-bytes and hype and fear.
In fact the TV news people do not even want you to think for yourself.
There are a lot of reasons why the news has gotten so bad, but one reason is that the guests that you see on the news shows are not independent agents, but are paid shills.
I have seen on MSNBC for example people get on there this year and proclaim that Donald Trump is being funded by Putin.
It’s an insane claim made with no proof made only to scare people into voting Clinton.
The thing is that the people on all of these news channels more often than not are simply paid agents of one of the political campaigns.
They have no care in the world about saying anything real, because that is not what they are getting paid to do.
I saw an interview with a former President of CNN who made note of this at the end of it.
You can watch it here:
As I said today is just one day.
Same goes with the stock market.
NEVER draw giant conclusions from one day of action in the financial markets like many people I saw in the Twitter world and on CNBC did yesterday.
And one election is not going to determine the future of the rest of our lives.
And when you have the ability to get your own resources and are in a position that you can think for yourself then you have no reason to fear.
The CNBC types and talking heads on the news shows are afraid, because they do not have that ability.
And they want you to be afraid.
And they are getting more and more afraid themselves, because their words are losing their resonance.
They are failing.
CNBC ratings are in collapse.
In the past few months enough CNBC viewers have switched the channel so that FOX Business is now beating them in ratings. Some have gone to Bloomberg over the years too.
And those viewers are never coming back, because CNBC betrayed them.
This is why you see CNBC talking heads occasionally lash out at guests as happened on "Fast Money" when it sunk to new lows a few weeks ago.
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