Tim Hortons for the Canadians


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Tim Hortons for the Canadians

bought 200 shares Timmys at 49.28 on the dip
its bounced off the recent sell off
For a swing trade back to old high(52.28)
or new high 3 dollars upside for 1 dollar down with a stop 1 dollar lower

Its in a nice uptrend, earnings are forecasted to grow 17 % or more this year, they are likely to increase the dividend, they have been buying back shares

keep your stick on the ice

Steve

el stevedore
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how is Timmy doing in his

how is Timmy doing in his forays into the american market?

my gut said that would be a flop, but i haven't looked into it

good luck with your trade.

RIP tim. i believe he died in a car accident not too far from my house where i grew up

sell
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yes, they have had to

yes, they have had to re-focus in the states, apparently they are changing the format to accommodate the US market, It is definitely a concern . Most canadian forays into the US end in failure.
Earnings still look good so its a good swing trade for me.I still see huge lineups at Tims here on the west coast of canada in vancouver in both the interior and the drive through.

Anyways, I have an exit plan in case.

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

el stevedore
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Timmy's on 99N

the Timmy's in squamish on the 99N must make a killing, i don't think i ever climb a mountain without stopping there first. :)

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My kids would go every day if

My kids would go every day if they could, We stop by when I drive them to school here in mission, its not good for me but I love the Honey dip donuts !!!
Good luck trading

Steve
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sell
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update

Double-double coffee and double-digit forecasted earnings put Canadian restaurant stalwart Tim Hortons Inc. at the top of Desjardins Securities Inc. analyst Keith Howlett's consumer discretionary picks for 2012.

With strong growth in both same-store sales and restaurant unit count and a cash-generative franchise business model, Howlett sees a potential 20.4 per cent return for 2012, including dividends.

However, the company does face headwinds this year in the form of a new president and CEO, ongoing changes to its store format and further development of its international growth strategy. "Management will need to keep a watchful eye on the market impact of the McDonald's McCafe roll-out and the accompanying restaurant renovation program in Canada," says Mr. Howlett.

Upside: Mr. Howlett reiterated his "buy" rating and maintained a price target of $58 (Canadian). That's modestly more bullish than the median Street price target of $54.08, according to Bloomberg. Out of 16 analysts who follow the stock, seven currently rate it as a buy and nine as a hold.

Steve

Steve
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Guidance

Nice bounce up on the earnings today, here is the guidance they have given for 2012

The Company has established the following 2012 performance targets:
-- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65 to $2.75. -- 2012 same-store sales growth of 3% to 5% in Canada and 4% to 6% in the U.S. -- A total of 250 to 290 restaurant openings, including: o 155 to 175 restaurant openings in Canada o 80 to 100 full-serve restaurant openings in the U.S o Approximately 15 restaurant openings in the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Capital expenditures between $220 million to $260 million. Our increased level of capital expenditures reflects enhanced design elements and continued restaurant development activity in both Canada and the U.S., and the Company's share of investments to increase restaurant drive-thru capacity in Canada, including initiatives such as selectively implementing order station relocations, double-order stations and, double-lane drive-thrus. Our increased capital expenditures also reflect investments to accelerate renovations in Canada, which will feature more contemporary design elements similar to our new restaurant development sites. -- In addition, our Canadian advertising fund will be investing up to $100 million to expand the use of digital menu boards in our Canadian restaurants in fiscal 2012 along with new drive-thru rotating menu boards. These expenditures will be funded primarily through third-party financing, which will be secured by the Canadian advertising fund's assets. For accounting purposes, advertising funds are consolidated as variable interest entities, and as a result, will be reflected in our Consolidated

Steve
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sell
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selling

sold 200 thi at 52.85 today, new high, basically my target for this swing for a 694 dollar profit

will buy again on the next dip, hopefully about 2 dollars lower , so maybe 50.85

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

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Bought 200 today at 53.77

had a bid in for 53.77 and just got hit, will target 57.77 for an exit although I may do a quick 1 dollar up exit for a takeout trade to reduce my cost base, depends on how the market acts the next couple of weeks

Steve
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Entered sell limit order for 57.77

I have decided to sell 200 at 57.77, I expect a runup before earnings in about a month, it may go to a new high but will stick to my plan and exit at 57.77

Steve
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sell
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Bought 200 more at 53.85

Decided to pick up 200 MOre Timmy's, these I will target 54.85 for a short term exit
hoping for a 2 day trade length
still holding the other 200 for a 57.77 exit

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

sell
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revised sell of additional 200 to 57.49

I went through my timmy's fundamentals and earnings and decided there is a better chance of this running back to its old high in the next 3-4 weeks. Earnings are coming out on the 6 Aug , 3 weeks from Monday , I am anticipating an early runup about halfway to 56 then a spike the rest to 58ish after the earnings announcement, this is about as good as it gets for a trade like this, now I just have to sit on my butt to see the result

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

jimslulu
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Timmy's

Even Ken Fisher in Forbes is recommending. He says also they have entered the American market with good initial results./jimo

silvia
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Steve,

Steve,

Just read this fr. Vialoux:

Tim Hortons (THI $53.68 Cdn.) is expected to open lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. Target is $51.The stock has a positive, but deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $52.61 and resistance is at its all-time high at $57.91. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average. However, the stock trades below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators are trending down and strength relative to the TSX Composite Index turned negative at the beginning of May. A break below support at $52.61 completes a head and shoulders pattern. Preferred strategy is to avoid for now.

sell
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Thanks -Been reviewing Goldman Sachs downgrade to sell

Here is the companies last quarter highlights
(Unaudited. All amounts in Canadian dollars and presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.)
Financial & Highlights

Performance Q1 2012 Q1 2011 %
Year-over-Year
Change
Total revenues $ 721.3 $ 643.5 12.1%
Operating income $131.6 $120.6 9.1%
Effective tax rate 27.7% 29.1%
Net income attributable to THI $88.8 $80.7 10.0%
Diluted earnings per share
attributable to THI (EPS)$0.56 $0.48 17.4%
Fully diluted shares 157.5 168.0 (6.3)%
(All numbers in millions, except EPS and effective tax rate. All numbers rounded.)

Same-Store Sales(1) Q1 2012 Q1 2011
Canada 5.2% 2.0%
U.S. 8.5% 4.9%
(1) Includes average same-store sales at Franchised and Company-operated locations open for 13 months or more.
Substantially all of our restaurants are franchised.

My comments-

Summer sees more restaurant traffic as weather is better, Coffee prices were increased this year so comparitive q over q results from a year ago should see improvement in q2
Last quarters same store sales were up as shown in the companies results
growth predicted in store numbers
its hard for me to see what this analyst at GS is concerned about in the short term, but that does not mean it will not pan out that way.

His prime concern seems to be increased competition and reduction in same stores traffic.
From what I can see there is revenue growth, EPS growth, Same store sales growth, store growth, share buybacks, dividend increases
odds favor continued growth in share price, no guarentee of course
The biggest concern I have is that Goldman Sachs has said sell and they carry a lot of weight
Fundamentally I think it looks great and thats what I trade on
I will hold my positions for my targets of 57.49 and 57.77
I would buy more here but I am fully invested as far as Tim's goes in my money management scheme

Of course I am more nervous now, fear is kicking in saying sell, but that goes against one of my mistakes in the past of selling the dip instead of selling the rally.I wil stick to trading the fundamental facts, so its back to waiting until the q2 earnings come out in august (3 weeks)

I will watch carefully the next few days for a 5 min volatility breakout up to suggest strong technical price support here , been here before , now I have to see if the facts support price

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

sell
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ps

I am going to Timmy's just to bolster same store sales with my kids shortly, double double and a honey dip
;)
Good luck trading

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

Spock
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Steve..

Timmy's is a good company but I think the concern is that:

they are becoming saturated in Canada
risk/reward in the US is uncertain
valuations are getting stretched
effects of sales growth, buybacks and lower tax rates are disapating

\\// It would be illogical to assume that all conditions remain stable

sell
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FYI Timmy fans

WebBroker Alert

========================

Tim Hortons struggles to regain investor enthusiasm Darcy Keith RTGAM

The rally in Tim Hortons Inc. stock that brought it to all-time highs earlier this year fizzled out this summer, with shares down about 14 per cent since early May.

The company's second-quarter results, released last Thursday, failed to generate much excitement; though revenue rose 11.8 per cent, same-store sales growth in Canada was showing signs of fatigue amid a challenging macroeconomic and competitive environment.

Analysts may best be described as cautiously optimistic. Of 17 analysts who follow the stock, seven rate it a buy, nine a hold, and one a sell. The average price target is $56.50, according to Bloomberg data.

One analyst who had been a little bit more enthusiastic than the consensus scaled back his expectations today. CIBC World Markets' Perry Caicco cut his price target by $5 to $57, while reiterating a "sector performer" rating.

While Tims is succeeding in selling more products to its existing customers and slowly introducing Americans to the brand, he's worried about what's on the horizon.

"Although THI is a low-risk investment, there are concerns over long-term growth in Canada and a comprehensive strategy for its future growth market, the U.S.," he noted in a research note.

He scaled back his earnings per share estimate for fiscal 2012 by a nickel, to $2.70, and reduced his forecast by an equal amount for 2013, now expecting EPS of $3.06.

He notes that organizational changes have been announced in preparation for the eventual appointment of a new externally sourced CEO.

For now, analysts are indicating that investors may have to wait for the next leader, or signs of more robust same-store sales growth, before the coffee chain's stock gets its next jolt of adrenalin.

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

sell
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my perspective

Thought I would go over how Timmys fits for me
My criteria for a stock is as follows
1.stock pays a dividend- Timmys pays 84 c a share about 1.7% yield as of today
2.stock in a long term technical weekly bull market -Yes, quite a pull back at the moment testing the bull
3.Dividend increased in the past year - Yes 23.5%
4.Liklihood of a substantial dividend increase in next 12 months -Yes, 20% is my guess, eps and rev growing substantiallly to cover this,buybacks also on track, eps growth 12 %,rev growth 12%
5.Positive forward earnings momentum-Yes, rev growing at 12%, eps growing at 12%not beating expectations, meeting
6.Positive investor perception of the stock earnings and stock
earnings perception-last 2 earnings have led to sell off in stock, so underperform in this category likely due to slowing sames store sales growth
stock perception with index/market in general-I am giving it a with although in the last few months it is behaving weakly to under, more a case of too far to fast probably but that is what it is doing

I would like to see the investor perception stronger but that is what the market is telling me about timmy over the past 3 months

For a strong run back up we probably need an earnings report with robust same store sales growth, although if a major institution decideds to start accumulating that could take it up as well. This stock has great fundamentals but we need a catalyst to get it back to its old high,I may try for a couple of takeout trades to reduce my cost base on this, I need a couple of rallies to do this, maybe a rally to 53 ish, seems to be the new resistance zone , sell the first bounce buy that dip , that is the most likely rally to fail, I will keep my eye on this for that opportunity. If I hold this it will eventually grow its rev/eps into the old 57 high price so I could also wait, but I want to get there faster as a trader

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

sell
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Exiting Timmys, Removing from my personal trade list

I sold 200 THI.to for a loss of $ 1554
sold 200 @ 46.18

after my trade review my mistakes were
1.not selling sooner
2.Buying after a Strong perceived bad quarterly earnings release (warning sign)
my future mitigation for these will be
1.if quarterly earnings are strongly perceived bad I will look for the soonest exit or put on a stop
2. Do not enter a position if a stock has quarterly earnings perception that is strongly negative

I have also altered my Stock filter for what I will trade, I will now only trade stocks that pay an expected forward dividend in the next 12 months of 3% plus
This eliminates THI and CNR from my trading portfolio

This will reduce my risk, and when in drawdown on a stock the higher dividends will reduce my cost base and mitigate my risk while I wait.

I have also altered my trading plan for exiting a stock/removing from my trading list
if quarterly earnings are strongly perceived bad I will look for the soonest exit or put on a stop

As always I learn more from my mistakes then my successes. Painfull as it is

With Timmy's what I missed was that same store sales gain were slowing (although still growing)and traffic was declining slightly. So investors in general did not think the growth was strong enough to justify its current price trajectory up or forward PE. So they started selling. Perception is what moves stocks and in the end as I study trading more and more it always seems to be about earnings.

I saw the quarterly earnings reports showing Same store sales slowing but thought that rev growth and earnings growth of 10 % plus a year was more important, however the market participants voted it was not and sold Timmy's off. Lesson learned

Anyways my greatest fear in trading is what I do not know today that I will know in 6 months. So I continue to learn

Steve
Keep your stick on the ice.

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