Rally Ho! - Polit-ticking about PMs

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Anonymous (not verified)
Rally Ho! - Polit-ticking about PMs

The 'reverse head and shoulders' - quoted of late - to complete the cycle needs to maintain at 33-34 for a period, followed by a rally to 35 and hold to fully complete this cycle. Silver is holding at 33.99 - bless its' shiny soul. [but opened Monday 20 cents down with the gap between ASX & NYMEX] It is near entering the fifth week in this cycle so a correction must be near term - in my opinion. However, some analysts are calling this rally the start of something bigger in silver. I am leaning on the wait and see approach and reduced volumes and closed some positions on Friday. This was purely as a precaution as the time range from closure to reopen from Friday to Monday puts about 4-5 hours on the board. A lot can happen in four hours. Regardless, it is only a technical blip on the screen to cap off a perfect reversal in the completion of the head and shoulders. We shouldn't forget either, Clive Maund posted the other week stating silver would head to 33 then reverse severely. I will be watching for his view on current trends this week. Remember it was just weeks ago the bears were roaring from all quarters now the bulls are calling the shots from the woodwork. Silver has now advanced through the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages in this uptrend with zero corrections that I can see. Although some charts are contradicting the movement through the 200 day MA. Hmmmm - which ones do I trust! I can't laugh but I feel better now with this latest upswing. It would be nice to rally above the MAs to set the bull in firm and solid and to post some solid gains. However, we are never home and hosed as the next battle is already in play.

I am speculating that the return of the Chinese might dampen our enthusiasm. The week without all the little peckers has been comforting to say the least. I admire them but they frequently seem to chew up the upside. Sometimes Chinese day traders are like the tides on steroids - they come and go at a rapid pace and leave taking the profits with them. Europe frequently does the same thing and the ASX is hitting on last weeks highs as I write. You know the law of averages says 'what goes up must come down.'

It might be comforting to consider though, that all the little investors are corporately getting bigger. It is in my opinion the little guys that have won this battle. Many, in fact, most of the big corporates called bears. We flew in the face of negativity and proceeded to the heavily armed gate that screamed closed - no bulls allowed. Congratulations to all the bullish crew at WSW and beyond. Thank you Mr America - we couldn't have done it without your faith and the steadfast belief and patience of the guru at WSW. Enough accolades but truly - thanks for the moral support ladies and gentlemen.

I still think with what Jim Willie has posted that this battle is far from over so the accolades are somewhat in jest.


An economic war front is going to be pulled out of this latest bull, coupled with other fronts that have loomed big on the horizon. But we don't know what kind of implements the big players have in their armoury this time around. Remember, last time Ben the Bank laid out the 'range of tools at the Feds disposal' - silver got the right old 'hammer.' Don't discount the continual power of stealth. Jim Willie is sprouting shorts flooding in on the bulls territory if I read him correctly.

I think also this week will possibly be increasingly volatile as the big players attempt to shake some nuts from the trees by triggering stop losses.

When it comes to the Iranian nuclear bramble, London has its' hands tied with the Olympics which is great, so any call to physical intervention in Iran is at least a year away in my opinion. Just imagine the nations that would potentially boycott the games this year if a preemptive strike as a 'just cause' were to be called and commissioned. Besides that they will meet with some stiff physical opposition if China, India and Russia got behind Iran. India is still soured by the British occupation - they will never forget the shame - and are independent in their own rights now. They have very close ties with Russian military strategies and are a watchful and valued inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperative Treaty. However, they are not fully fledged members as of SCO yet. It will be WW perpetual if a preemptive strike is fashioned out of this one. I think at the moment there are no 'red flags' out as it is bluff from every angle. The USA has never invaded another nuclear power and I don't think they are ready for WW3 just yet. Abanaminejad has also called for talks with the 'powers that be' late last week.

I am going to call a high likelihood of contract margin hikes in this battle - as the first range of implements to be used - possibly next week. Especially if or as PMs go in for a correction to the downside. After all the Chinese led the last foray on that move and I have posted why repeatedly. Highly priced silver works against manufacturing industries. A large manufacturing based economy like China needs relatively stable prices in commodities like silver to control material costs.

I can't see the 'powers that be' not taking a shot at the bulls in this round. The dollar pundits and those who desire the strong USD will not be pleased with the hammer the 'greenie' is getting either. I recall some analysts shorting major Chinese banks not long ago - I laughed at that one. Now the shoe is on the other foot as major US banks have the powers of the shorts right across the board. Hmmm - economic war zone or the flavour of the month? I'm not sure at all.

With this and other factors sliding into the quagmire, the upward trend can be maintained if 'powerful sentiment' swings positive to back the bulls. I believe it needs more than just the little guys but needs some big players to jump on-board as well and send some sky-rockets heavenwards. Speaking of fireworks, the Chinese businesses go back today; so since about 6am this morning it has been a continual 'crackerfest' lighting up the sky. The Chinese ward off the 'evil spirit of Nian' from their businesses as well. The crackers are said to scare the old monster back into the forest. It seems to me the rhetoric to scare off Iran has totally backfired this time. They are calling the bluff and have big-time friends backing them up. Jim Willie is basically calling this a 'paradigm.' You know, I think he is right! It has been my call for a long time as well.

Howard Katz once wrote, "To manipulate any free market is virtually impossible ... and there has been no successful manipulation on record in economic history." [I took it out of context!]

BUT, he said it and suggested a crash course in economics can prove it ... very interesting view of Austrian economics!

What is futures if it is not manipulative to some degree? What is war for oil if it is not manipulative economics. And I might add, what is nuclear proliferation if it is not a manipulative tactic to make others sit up and listen. After all, the five permanent and founding members of the United Nations are and were all nuclear powers! In my opinion, economic wars are full of manipulation and nobody does it better then the cartel. After all, social engineering has been full of manipulators from day one! Welcome to the world - where the power of unity is not the the power that is omniscient in the hearts and minds of planetary citizens.

I perhaps need an education.

What's your view?

The link to Katz


kaibo888 (not verified)
Good news

In the above article I mentioned Clive Maund. He has an almost weekly inclusion posted at Kitco on Mondays. It usually is referenced to the trading week that has closed out on Friday. The good news is that Clive has given silver the 'all clear.' I have seen his analysis many times and generally he is pretty accurate. This means that he and his team are expecting a momentary cessation in strong upward movement but they are confident we will see a move higher.

Debbie Carlson also reported that most analysts have forecast Gold to move up by the end of the week as well.

Silver has not yet broken the 200 day MA so a chart I had observed appeared incorrect as the rest I have observed are showing silver short of that target.

I have been searching today for possible leaked news that might indicate futures contract hikes again but to no avail. I hope it stays that way. As we can see the correction has occurred - we are still riding 33 and gold at 1700 so it looks solid at this stage.

Anyway, here is an excerpt from Clive's post and the link. NB: the phrase 'backdoor QE' - there it is again. TMS declares it - QE Perpetual is alive and well.

"In this modern age of market manipulation and meddling, politicians are not prepared to give the forces of capitalism free rein to do their necessary work of straightening out distortions, since that conflicts with their agenda. Thus, instead of letting European banks collapse, the Fed has decided to rescue them with "back door" QE dressed up as swaps etc - the reason is, as you might expect, not altruistic - if the European banks collapse, they will drag down the US banks, and as the US banks are the Fed's masters and the bosses of the entire system, that cannot be allowed to happen, whatever the cost elsewhere. That is why the markets are rallying again across a broad front and why the outlook for gold and silver, and commodities generally, is once again bright, for the European bailout means money creation - and inflation."


Zheng Guo
Last seen: 7 hours 10 min ago
Joined: 11/15/2010 - 15:30
Maund is on my "skim in less

Maund is on my "skim in less than 10 seconds" list because his guesses have not been that good over the years. In particular, I've seen him totally wrong at inflection points, so that if you traded on his recommendations, you lost.

Why does everyone hang on the words of people who have no better guesses than you or I? They might call it analysis, but IMO they're just guesses dressed up to sound profound.


kaibo888 (not verified)

Yes, I agree with the comment. I weigh up everything I can find but reject unreasonable. However, last September Maund had forecast a fall in bullion prices. I was not in a receptive mode and rejected the technical info he had suggested. I lost out big so he was right then. Since then I weigh his info as worth considering. Everyone is worthy of getting it right sometimes but perhaps nobody always hits the nail on the head.

Like yesterday, on Monday I took profits. On Tuesday morning my inclination told me Asian markets were going to pump it and they did. I watched it and foolishly never bought. All day, I watched and I even told associates three times that I think the US will hit the profit tonight. I bought last night against my intuition and commonsense and I am stuck at the moment again. The US did hit the profits last night so if Asia steers clear, if Europe drives it down further, if the US doesn't pump it - I am a fool again waiting until next Christmas.

Sometimes sitting it out on the sideline is the best scenario but then like an associate said last week, 'I never know when to buy and now it went up and I am disappointed.'

Hey honey. That's life. We all make mistakes.

kaibo888 (not verified)

The week so far saw some more short term milestones conquered. Increased volatility is present, with the return of Chinese mainland markets into the foray; nevertheless, fresh near term resistance levels have been currently broken. Gold is riding 1750 and silver has finally settled above 34 at NYSE close.

The upside momentum again occurred on Thursday as we found both the dollar and PMs on the same side of the fence. I don't know why this technical anomaly occurs, but some remember I called recently the 'return to safe haven status' would occur when the dollar and gold were on the same side of the fence. If any expert at WSW would care to clarify a 'possible' technical reason as to why I would be appreciative. As a relative 'safe haven' PMs have definitely reaffirmed their standing this week.

The only 'hikes' of any description that I have found are the increases on import duties in India. Apparently it did not dampen Indian enthusiasm for metals as the 'wedding season' is now in full swing. Several analysts I recall had posted that decreased manipulation of silver markets would be seen going forward in future. Although I am cautious, and although guys like Katz says it never occurs, it does appear that for now at least we are in clearer territory and my fears are perhaps unfounded for an immediate contract margin hike.

On that basis, it is anyone's guess as to what the metals might close out at this week. Can silver take out 35 and gold 1780 or beyond - we hope! It is already Friday in Oceanic extremes so we again are positioned for a potentially exciting close for the week. We can possibly expect more 'safe haven' monies to flow in to close out the week on a positive high in gold and silver. Silver, to complete the current trend needs to reach 35 and there is no time like tonight to step up to the plate. Debbie Carlson paints a nice 'roundup' of the potential momentum going forward. It is a nice piece of reporting.


Many years ago I recall a prominent US lecturer in biblical studies was once asked, 'which version of the bible he preferred' - his reply was - 'the version that supports my dogma!'
On that basis I have chosen an excerpt from the lovely Debbie's report that supports my 'dogma.'

Dave Toth is quoted: ...the next challenge for silver bulls is for the metal to rise above the current stage... If March silver can rise above the current resistance that rests at $34 to $35, then support starts to rise to $32.93. By using those levels as important technical chart supports, a trader with a short-term outlook can preserve gains made on the rally.

I might add he also was quoted as saying that this is a period where potential increased volatility can be expected. The key here for me at least is taking out the 35. The talk of 50 USD per ounce is too far into the sunset at this stage because the short-term trading targets have to be met first. Although I am still taking profits across the board, a return to cash before the near term correction will put me back on a true 'day trading' platform. That's the way I like it as that gives me the most potential to take profits and over ride inflationary pressures. For some of the big players here that target 25,50 or even 100% gains, I admire and envy you; however, my immediate goals are more subdued at a flat rate minimum progressive return of 10% month on month. I maintained it consistently in 2011 until my ego got damaged by a stinger.

In the near term we can expect a major correction as this cycle is in the fifth week. What happens tonight could well be a forerunner to the close of a nice rally - possibly as early as next week or the second week of February - and a great start to the year. Many analysts are forecasting a significant downturn in this first quarter across the board and I must say I agree. The former forecast of maximum levels of PMs in March could well be pulled back into this month. In fact, a high probability of a correction in this bull will occur next week.

That also potentially goes for some equities which are flying on increased liquidity and not intrinsic fundamental improvements. Although US automotive markets have boosted this rally in industrial PGMs, which in turn boosts industrial silver, the housing sector got a large hammer last week with the rejection of a potential 'fix it' bill being rejected again. The foundations are shaky for any form of sustainable stronger rally in the near term or immediate future.

So for me and my house, it's "35" or bust and a 'last bite' at the cherry.

Just to give me an out in case PMs rally hard and strong next week; a weak dollar, stronger oil, and truckloads of investor monies are needed to drive the 'bulls' beyond this level. If that occurs, (doubtful) we have the substance of stardom in PMs being restored from the early portion of 2011.

Cheers everyone - hope today rallies for you too!

kaibo888 (not verified)

The way it is looking tonight it is like a game of Russian roulette. Asian markets added nothing to standings today. London came on-board and dribbled the ball. Then entered the New York Rockets. It has been rapid fire with balls going in all directions. It kicked off like a game of vertical ping-pong with balls being returned from the troposphere. It now looks like some bugger wants to run off with the ball. In fact I just had another peak at the board and yep, some bugger just ran off with the ball. Can I swear on this site? Oh bugger! One thing it does indicate is that the USA is still the world's largest market with an interest in ball games.

We might not have to wait until next week after all to see some action one way or another. I hope I am wrong but we might be in for a rough ride again with some profit taking tonight or even a more substantial correction. I almost want to go to sleep rather than endure the pain of watching my positions endure another hammer until 4am tomorrow morning as the board closes here in China.

Bernanke reaffirmed his position today and was quoted as saying, "...we have a range of tools..."
Last time he said that silver took a huge hammer following the Jackson hollow meeting last year. I wrote an entertaining satire. I may edit it and post it in the fuel for the mind section Mike has.

Hope you didn't lose your ball.

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