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Many junior mining investors have run off with their tails between their legs. And who can blame them when even the portfolios of market veterans like Peter Grandich, publisher and editor of The...

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By Jeff Pierce

If you have trouble locating leading stocks then you’ll find a lot of value with my premium tradewithZEN trade advisory service. Below are a number of stocks that have been on phenomenal runs and had you been a member you would have known about these stocks below the masses have. You would receive a tweet each night with any new additions to the watchlist so you don’t even have to do any of the work.

I also teach a very specific way to enter these stocks and encourage subscribers to identify their own entries as my way isn’t the only way. But what is important is fishing from the right pond and that is what I assure you’ll find within my service. At the end of this post you’ll see a watchlist of stocks I’ve recently removed from the watchlist with the original entry prices/dates to see how they’ve performed since then.

Here is a study performance done by a current member that shows how twz stocks perform over various timeframes from the point of addition to the watchist.

 

 

 

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"If I’ve learned one thing over the last 12 years from following markets, economics, and geopolitics is this: no man can push the Wheels of History. It unfolds in its own time and no other."

I am honored to publish a deeply insightful two-part essay by longtime contributor Eric A. on long-term cycles, and how they shape our spectrum of responses in periods of crisis and transformation. This essay has profound implications for our individual choices in the years ahead, and I believe it helps explain my own political/ financial philosophy outlined in my books: 
Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It
Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change
An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times
Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation
Here is Part 1 of Eric's essay. Part 2 will be published tomorrow.
Many of you may be familiar with the Foundation series by Issac Asimov. In it, mathematician "Hari Seldon spent his life developing a branch of mathematics known as psychohistor. Using the laws of mass action, it can predict the future, but only on a large scale; it is error-prone on a small scale."
In practice, we can see that this would be theoretically correct: we study history precisely because human nature is relatively the same and the same events recur with the same predictable responses. If history really were chaos--a muddle of events appearing randomly and being resolved in unpredictable ways--there would be no point in studying it.
Using this same method, in “Foundation” Hari Seldon uses his model to predict with great accuracy the unfolding of the human universe hundreds and thousands of years in the future. But that’s sci-fi, right?
Not exactly. Like many sci-fi stories, “Foundation” takes a true premise and extrapolates it into the future. In the 30’s “Buck Rogers” hypothesized the existence of rockets and trips to Mars. Star Trek hypothesized the wide use of lasers--a laboratory curiosity--and phasers, similar to the microwave technology we use every day. Science Fiction by definition thinks ahead to ask “what if?” We know what is possible, but what if we could harness, refine, perfect it? By definition, it must be ahead of its time, or it wouldn’t be “Sci-Fi” but “Contemporary Fiction.”
Foundation originally appeared in Astounding Magazine in 1942. So how are we doing?
As it turns out, pretty good. There is a “Hari” working on exactly this problem: Harry Dent, of demographics research. “Demographics are destiny” he would say. As each generation is born, it demands support in housing and schools, then is productive in their middle years, creating the most wealth right on cue in their 50’s, then retiring and drawing resources until death, and so on through time. It cannot be changed except with mass epidemic or calamity of war. And this is provably true: demographics of the Boomers in the U.S. are measurably slowing the economy as they retire, precisely the way that Japan’s earlier baby boom slowed their economy into a Depression 20 years earlier.
There is Robert Prechter’s “Socionomics” study, which states that markets and governments don’t create human moves, but are instead the consequence of them. That is to say, human emotions and behavior run in cycles of set period. Obviously humankind cannot become infinitely more optimistic forever into the future. In the same way trees don’t grow to the sky, at some point human expectation must reverse and become less optimistic, more conservative and pessimistic until it reaches an opposite extreme.
And this theory has a lot going for it: if governments truly controlled stock markets, economies, nations, then why would they ever decline? No government or market would ever voluntarily get smaller, less powerful, and prosperous. And yet despite everything they can do to prevent them, markets and economies always, always DO reverse. Always. And what’s more, they move in predictable cycles over time, from the 4-year business cycle to the 70-odd year Kondratieff Cycle.

This 70-year cycle of human lifetime is what Strauss and Howe refine in their work The 4th Turning. The idea that there are four generations that proceed in predictable order: Prophet, Hero, Nomad, Artist that occur over and over again in western history since at least the 16th century. Imagine a kitten being born, living half its life in winter, never seeing spring until they are full-grown—how that affects their behavior, their perception of life.
This is the same for the generations, being born in turns in a stable, expanding world or an unstable, contracting one markedly alters the perception and behavior, the demands outlook, and skills of a 20-year generation. This not only meshes with the Kondratieff Cycle but explains the expansions and contractions, breathing in and breathing out, the ebb and flow of optimism and pessimism that are easily so predictable in aggregate, just as Asimov predicted.
There is one additional candidate: market timer Martin Armstrong. Armstrong doesn’t just follow cycles, but like Hari Seldon, has made a complex computer model of all factors, and has made a career predicting precise turns in timing, often to the day, as in the market crash of 1987.

How can he do this? Because people in aggregate do not have as much free will as they believe they do. We as people are not only our own observations and desires, but we exist as an integral part of a larger ecosystem – a social, economic, political, thermodynamic, and mathematical ecosystem that we cannot escape. Just as the kitten above, living in a world that has always been snow leads you to simply BE different than who you might have been only knowing the ease of the summer sun.
What could possibly create human cycles with such predictability in time and frequency? Although everyone from Ecclesiastes to Machiavelli to Munehisa Homma remarks that they exist, no one really knows. But how about something like this?

Or other, longer cycles, from the sun, the stars, the weather, the planets? We don’t know. Like gravity or time, we can only see and measure the effects, we cannot yet hypothesize their cause.
Back to charts, many of you may be familiar with this chart by market commentator Karl Denninger, from 2009:

What does this tell us? GDP, the real economy theoretically rises by let’s say 3% a year. However since 1971, debt has risen something more like 9% a year. Any 5th grade student recognizes the law of simple exponents. That GDP, that is, economic “Reality” is falling ever further behind economic fantasy, that is, all the undelivered paper promises represented by “debt.”
This is the mathematical system we live in that also largely represents the thermodynamic reality of the U.S., and critics have been bringing this to public attention since the budget debates of the ‘80’s. The injustice, the irrefutability, and impossibility of avoiding the sudden collapse of the market--indeed the real world of politics, war, death, and human action—back to the lower line. They have been warning the public since before the first crash of 2001 that this MUST happen, and must happen badly.
So why hasn’t it crashed? Why, 14, 24, 34 years later is the economy still limping along, the illusions still firmly in place despite every evidence and warning?
It isn’t time.
We in the blogosphere have been warning people about impending collapse for over a decade, and for the most part we’ve been right: tech on the Nasdaq crashed from 5000 to 1000, never to recover. Housing crashed never to recover. The Dow fell from 14,000 to 6,600. Every bank nationally and worldwide is insolvent. Most developed nations are also insolvent along with their debt, which is the de facto currency and blood of the very system of human exchange. We predicted this and were correct.
Yet seen another way, nothing has changed. Instead of falling to 7 PE and 4% dividend ratio, the Dow rebounded to 14,700. Instead of over-correcting beyond a 3:1 income ratio, below $126,000, U.S. housing remains levitated at roughly $200,000, far above what the young can afford, stranding 20M houses in vacancy and decay. With market proof, mathematical proof, proof of financial action such as the hundred Trillion in bank bailouts and the political red flag of the Cyprus bail-in, how can this be?
It isn’t time.
If I’ve learned one thing over the last 12 years from following markets, economics, and geopolitics is this: no man can push the Wheels of History. It unfolds in its own time and no other. Look at the Generations: at this time, the Boomers are still in undisputed control of the US, economically, socially, and politically. They own a quorum of all wealth.

They have a supermajority in Congress. Economically, attention is largely focused on only this demographic which still has some remaining money—the Viagra and prescription drug ads, the focus on investing and retirement, even the age of the actors in movies, TV, and commercials tells us so. The young, although now larger in numbers, have no effective political power. This will change, but it only changes when it does, on the strict schedule of demographics.
Socially, we saw the markets crash into ’01 and ’08. But like the matching dates of 1921 and 1929 these were sudden extremes in human pessimism which could not be sustained. It matters not at all whether they are “true,” or whether fundamentals support them: human emotion cannot remain at extremes of either optimism or pessimism; it cannot move in one direction all at once. They must and will fluctuate, and the time it takes for the mood of an aggregate population to fluctuate is a predictable quantity, at minimum the 4-year business cycle.
Speaking of 1929, the inflation-adjusted Dow:

Or as inflation is notoriously difficult to measure, you may prefer the in vs out flows to gold as a money-standard:

Although noisy, note one thing in both these charts: the highs and lows tend to occur with a set frequency. The Dow with a small frequency of 4 years, a larger of 8, then 40, and so on, giving us times of 1929, 1968, and 2008. In Dow:Gold ratio, we have something only slightly more complicated, neatly marked by Greshams-law.com: 14 year Bear markets, followed 20 year Bull markets. There are very few ultra-long historical charts, but here is one:

For context, in 1344 A.D., gunpowder was a new invention, The 100 Years War was beginning, Joan of Arc hadn’t been born, and America wouldn’t be discovered for another 150 years. Yet note the chart above shows the same similar periods of highs and lows, for both 8 and 40 years. Why?
Hari Seldon’s phychohistory. The waves of human emotion, of optimism and pessimism both long and short term haven’t changed. Short-term it can only persist for 4 years while longer term only for sub-40 years, or exactly one-half one generation. Divide your four 20-year generations in half and you’ll find that same turning.
So why are the markets still going up? Why can’t people respond to warnings of the blogosphere, or warnings of collapsing economies and accounts right before their eyes?
Answer: Because they can’t. It isn’t time.
by Eric A.
Part 2 will be published tomorrow. 

Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:

1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy
Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).

We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.

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To receive a 20% discount on the print edition: $19.20 (retail $24), follow the link, open a Createspace account and enter discount code SJRGPLAB. (This is the only way I can offer a discount.)



Thank you, Steve R. ($100), for your outrageously generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.Thank you, Trenna L. ($10), for your much-appreciated generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.
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By Astrology Traders

The following is from Sunday premium report published on May 12th by Astrology Traders, which uses astrology to forecast events in the financial markets. Jeff Pierce adds in the technical picture for the stocks and sectors in focus. If you’d like to sign up for their free newsletter to be notified of upcoming webinars you can do so here.

We could again see a shift in the bond market on May 20th that will in my view be a warning of what is to come on June 20, 2014.  The speculation that the Fed will end its QE and bond buying program in 2014 could be the signal that the top in the bond market will be near June 20th next year.  We have been trading TBT with a very accurate strategy since the beginning of the year and we may again have another opportunity for a long position in the near future.  On January 9th we issued a trade alert for a long position near $65.  We followed up on February 24th with a recommendation to trim profits near $69 and advised there could be a pullback March 11th-March 27th.  On March 10th we reminded subscribers to close the remaining position with the impressive move to $69.42.  Looking back our trade target was within .42 cents of the high and the pullback materialized exactly on our target date of March 11th

Near June 12th-15th there could be news that money is flowing out of bonds and into the markets.  Watch for a pullback to near $61.40 to add a long position on TBT (ProShares Ultra short Treasuries)

 

Astrology Traders provides specific dates and in-depth analysis of future events for the financial markets through weekly updates, trade alerts, and educational webinars. We now provide a free 2 week trial and you are not charged until after the 2 weeks are up so you can sample risk-FREE.

 

 

 

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From Bloomberg ;
"Group of Seven finance chiefs signaled acceptance of the yen’s slide to its weakest in four years, so long as it doesn’t get out of hand."
Read the full article here  
Acceptance of the Yen's slide ... wake up !!!! Its a currency war !!!! Too stupid to understand !

Huldra Silver Inc. has filed a technical report titled “Technical Report on the Thule Copper-Iron Property, Southern British Columbia, Canada” for the Thule copper project. The company is also pleased to announce that concentrate shipments in April have increased by 42 per cent for lead/silver and 18 per cent for zinc/silver over the previous month.

The Thule copper project, located 14 kilometres northwest of Merritt, B.C., includes the former Craigmont copper-iron mine, 20 contiguous mineral claims, 10 contiguous mineral leases and seven freehold properties covering a total area of 8,272 hectares. The claims are owned 100 per cent by Huldra Properties Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the company.

The former Craigmont copper-iron mine was operated by Craigmont Mines Ltd. from 1961 until 1982 when Placer, the company’s majority shareholder, was forced to cease activity due to falling copper prices. During its operation, 34 million tonnes of ore were mined, grading approximately 1.28 per cent copper. Magnetite stockpile and tailings recovery operations continued from 1982 to 2012.

In 2012, Huldra completed a helicopter aeromagnetic gradient and spectrometer survey over the entire property. A total of 903 line kilometres of magnetic data was collected. From this data package, six magnetic targets were identified along strike of the past-producing Craigmont copper-iron mine. An additional six other exploration targets were identified during the data compilation and review process.

Huldra continues to experience significant monthly increases in production and shipments of concentrates. In April, a total of 233.2 dry tonnes of lead/silver concentrate and 199.3 dry tonnes of zinc/silver concentrate were shipped to the smelter, representing 42-per-cent and 18-per-cent increases, respectively. The total smelter invoices, representing 85-per-cent provisional payments in the month of April, were $1,662,497 (U.S.) plus GST. All payments are made pursuant to the previously announced concentrate purchase agreements. Provisional payments are based on the best available information at the time of invoicing. Final payments are subject to adjustment based on independent assay results and metal prices.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – May 9, 2013) - Balmoral Resources Ltd. (“Balmoral” or the “Company”) (TSX VENTURE:BAR)(OTCQX:BALMF) has been advised by GTA Resources and Mining Inc. (“GTA”) that initial results from the Phase 4 drilling program on the Company’s Northshore Property located near Schreiber, Ontario have successfully continued to expand the Afric Gold Zone. Results reported today confirm the presence of a north-east extension of the mineralized system into an area which has seen little historic testing. Results also continued to demonstrate broad zones of gold mineralization along the previously defined east-northeast (“East”) trending portion of the Afric Gold Zone, including 1.47 g/t gold over 70.0 metres in hole WB-13-38. Drilling also continues to intersect a series of higher-grade gold-bearing structures within the broader Afric Zone along both the Northeast and East limbs of the system (see Table 1 below).

Hole Number Hole Depth
(metres) From
(metres) To
(metres) Interval *
(metres) Gold
(g/t) Target WB-12-36 227 22.0 32.0 10.0 0.66 East Ext. (-50/120°) 64 68 4.0 1.43 94 95 1.0 3.3 WB-13-37 170 80.0 123.5 43.5 1.40 East Ext. (-50/122°) incl 88.0 101.0 13.0 2.50 and 122.0 123.5 1.5 14.2 WB-13-38 212 110.5 180.5 70.0 1.47 East Ext. (-64/122°) incl 110.5 112.5 2.0 12.28 WB-13-39 218 29.8 64.0 34.2 1.35 Northeast Ext. (-50/323°) incl 46.0 54.0 8.0 4.77 WB-13-40 152 73.0 122.0 49.0 0.53 Northeast Ext. (-70/323°) incl 73.0 74.0 1.0 5.63 and 101.0 102.5 1.5 7.97 and 121.0 122.0 1.0 3.33 * Reported drill intercepts are not true widths. At this time there is insufficient data with respect to the shape of the mineralization to calculate true orientations in space.

Highlights:

A new plan map showing the location of the holes released today, along with a schematic cross section through the East and Northeast limbs of the Afric Gold Zone are available on the Company’s website at www.balmoralresources.com. Results from an additional four holes remain pending and drilling is anticipated to resume on the property following spring-break-up.

East Extension - Highlights from 3 holes (WB-13-36, -37 and -38) completed along the eastern extension of the Afric Zone include 2.50 g/t (grams per tonne) gold over 13.0 metres (within a broader zone of 1.4 g/t gold over 43.5 metres) in hole WB-13-37 and 12.28 g/t gold over 2.0 metres (within a broader zone of 1.47 g/t gold over 70.0 metres) in hole WB-13-38. These holes, drilled approximately 50 metres and 100 metres respectively below a previously drilled shallow intersection of 1.51 g/t gold over 50.8 metres (hole WB-12-29) help confirm the strike continuity of the East Extension for a distance of 170 metres from the historic core of the Afric Zone and the depth continuity to a vertical depth of approximately 150 metres in this area. Hole WB-13-36 was drilled 70 metres further east from the above described section and intersected anomalous gold (0.66 g/t gold over 10.0 metres) along the interpreted trend of the East Extension.

Northeast Extension - Holes WB-13-39 and 40 tested the Northeast Extension approximately 130 metres northeast from the historic core of the Afric Zone and were successful in intersecting the northeast continuation of the Zone. The upper hole (WB-13-39) intersected 4.77 g/t gold over 8.0 metres within a broader zone of 1.35 g/t gold over 34.2 metres. Hole WB-13-40 tested the zone 50 metres below and intersected 7.97 g/t gold over 1.5 metres within a 49.0 metre zone assaying 0.53 g/t gold.

Gold mineralization on the Northshore Property is hosted within a sequence of felsic intrusive and lesser volcanic rocks. The Afric Zone is characterized by strong fracturing, moderate to locally strong alteration, disseminated sulphide mineralization and locally abundant visible gold. The mineralization is most similar to that associated with porphyry-style gold deposits and remains open in several directions. High-grade mineralization typically occurs in quartz veins and veinlets hosted by north-northeast trending fracture sets within the broader Afric Zone. Additional high-grade vein systems on the property, including the one associated with the former producing Northshore Mine, also remain to be evaluated.

Located immediately south of the town of Schreiber, Ontario within the Hemlo-Schreiber greenstone belt, the Northshore Property is currently 100% owned by Balmoral and under option to GTA. GTA can earn an initial 51% interest in the Property under the terms of an option agreement between the companies (see News Release NR11-17; July 27, 2011). Balmoral currently controls approximately 8.0% of the issued and outstanding shares of GTA and holds the shares for investment purposes.

QA/QC

GTA is the operator of the Northshore Project and as operator has generated and provided the information herein to Balmoral. As operator GTA is responsible are responsible for the planning, timing, execution and monitoring of exploration programs on the Northshore Project which is under the supervision of Robert (Bob) Duess, P. Geo. (Ontario), VP Exploration of GTA. Mr. Duess is a qualified person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 and is also the Qualified Person for this release. Mr. Duess has supervised the work programs on the Northshore Property, supervised the collection of the samples and drill core described herein and reviewed the assays and QA/QC data. Mr. Duess has also reviewed and approved this release.

GTA has implemented a quality control program for the drill programs on the Northshore Property to ensure best practice in sampling and analysis. GTA maintains strict quality assurance/quality control protocols including the systematic insertion of certified standard reference and blank materials into each sample batch. Analyses in this release were performed by AGAT Laboratories Ltd. of Sudbury, Ontario with ISO 17025 accreditation. Samples are transported in security sealed bags to AGAT and all samples were assayed using industry-standard assay techniques for gold. Gold was analyzed by a standard 30 gram fire assay with an ICP and/or gravimetric finish.

About Balmoral Resources Ltd. - www.balmoralresources.com

Balmoral is a Canadian-based precious metal exploration and development company focused on high-grade gold discoveries along the Detour Gold Trend in Quebec, Canada. With a philosophy of creating value through the drill bit and with a focus on proven productive precious metal belts, Balmoral is following an established formula with a goal of maximizing shareholder value through discovery and definition of high-grade, Canadian gold assets.

On behalf of the board of directors of BALMORAL RESOURCES LTD.

Darin Wagner, President and CEO

This press release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable Canadian and United States securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included herein, including statements regarding the anticipated content, commencement, duration and cost of exploration programs, anticipated exploration program results, the discovery and delineation of mineral deposits/resources/reserves, the timing of the receipt of assay results, and business and financing plans and trends, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as: believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, postulate and similar expressions or are those which, by their nature, refer to future events. Although the Company believes that such statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. The Company cautions investors that any forward-looking statements by the Company are not guarantees of future performance, and that actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from the Company’s expectations include those related to weather, equipment and staff availability; performance of third parties; risks related to the exploration stage of the Company’s projects; market fluctuations in prices for securities of exploration stage companies and in commodity prices; and uncertainties about the availability of additional financing; risks related to the Company’s ability to identify one or more economic deposits on the properties, and variations in the nature, quality and quantity of any mineral deposits that may be located on the properties; risks related to the Company’s ability to obtain any necessary permits, consents or authorizations required for its activities on the properties; and risks related to the Company’s ability to produce minerals from the properties successfully or profitably. Trading in the securities of the Company should be considered highly speculative. All of the Company’s public disclosure filings may be accessed via www.sedar.com and readers are urged to review these materials, including the latest technical reports filed with respect to the Company’s mineral properties.

This press release is not, and is not to be construed in any way as, an offer to buy or sell securities in the United States.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this press release.

 

Balmoral Resources Ltd.
John Toporowski
Manager, Corporate Development
(604) 638-5815 / Toll Free: (877) 838-3664
(604) 648-8809 (FAX)
jtoporowski@balmoralresources.com

By Jeff Pierce

Since November lows the Nikkei has risen 6k points vs 2500 on the Dow. Yes I think the markets are overheated and due for a pullback, but it’s not a given so be careful to not let any trading bias dictate your plan.

My timing signal on US equities has been taken a hit over the last few weeks as it signaled a pullback was coming and yet the markets continued to rally. All I can really say is the markets are being different right now and I don’t know if it means different bad or different good. So I’ve been playing both sides of the market, but clearly the market wants to go higher.

 

 

 

 

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Interview with Al Korelin

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from the Dow to a short term target at 15,083 – 15,108. Price reached 37 points above the target for the week. The wave count remains the same.

Last analysis expected upwards movement for Friday’s session. Price did move slightly higher for the session, but most movement was sideways. It is more likely now that the fourth wave correction is over and the fifth wave may have begun at the end of Friday’s session. The wave count and targets remain the same. It [...]

Apple Inc (AAPL) trading plan ;
EMA settings = 5 & 50
Crossing = Stop loss level
Key resistance is clear (add positions above if you bought)
Gut feeling ? We remain under this resistance for a few days, weeks, before
"things" start to improve ...
We need some "key news event" 

10 Year US Treasury Note Yield, weekly chart
Bill Gross said that the bond bull market probably ended
I say he is dead wrong ... for the moment
We got a few higher lows ... no big deal
See those large blue arrows ? Highly probable scenario
Prediction ? Long term deflation, no growth ...
Buy farm lands

By Poly

 

I’m amazed at the markets ability to keep pushing the equity markets higher without coming up for air.  The volumes are very light and the public remain sidelined.  This move is on autopilot as the “Bots” ride the trend while the fund and money managers are afraid to be out of the action.

But the S&P is now getting dangerously overbought and stretched.  Now very clearly into the 4th Daily Cycle, the S&P has pierced its 20dma (more than 2.5% above its 20dma) envelope and is sitting right on the upper Bollinger band.  Because the Equity Cycle is on Day 15 and nearly 100 points above the prior DCL the odds are extremely high that today marked at least a Half Cycle Top.  I’m not saying the primary move is necessarily over, but some consolidation on the Daily chart is extremely overdue.

The real story of this equity move is on the Investor Cycle chart.  Amazingly it looks as if the Equity markets have bucked what looked to be a certain IC Top.  The Cycle was well and truly deep into the timing band and the technical divergences we confirming a Cycle top.

But just as the Cycle began turning lower, a new wave of buying rushed into the markets.  I’m not entirely sure how to explain it because the move has little precedence.  I think attributing it to the FED’s POMO activity is probably an oversimplification.  What the markets have become is grossly irrational in light of the fundamentals and this type of behavior (or divergence) is almost exclusively reserved for those big cyclical market tops/lows.

So this irrationality is a sign of a major market top being hammered out.  But the problem with these moves is that they always extend further and longer than we expect.  I have no doubt that within the next 1-4 weeks that the S&P will drop more than 100 points, an ICL is desperately needed.  But we can not discount the markets ability to run sharply higher out of the next ICL, so therefore we cannot say for sure if the 4 Year Cycle Top is going to print with this Investor Cycle.

This as is an excerpt from the Midweek’s  premium update  from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. If you’d like to receive real time alerts as well as the most up to date reports, you may want to take their FREE 15-day trial to fully experience what they offer. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.

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Assemble-your-own tacos.


Since A healthy home-cooked family meal and a home garden are revolutionary acts, the revolution starts at home. Revolutionary acts resist and subvert cartel-state marketing/brainwashing; revolution never tasted so good.
For your review: assemble-your-own tacos. The tortillas were store-bought, but the frijoles, red pepper sauce and two green salsas were home-made.

The menu:
Local (Sonoma County Calif.) goat cheese in a Camembert style, with crackers 
Clausthaler non-alcoholic amber ale and Mexican beer
Taco ingredients, assembled to taste: -- crumbled feta cheese -- thin-sliced romaine lettuce -- diced fresh tomatoes -- home-made red sauce (California chiles) -- home-made green chile salsa (mild and hot) -- home-made frijoles (beans) -- sliced olives -- cilantro -- home-made guacamole
An electric pan on the table enabled heating the tortillas as needed.
The red chile salsa recipe (page 46) is from Jacqueline Higuera McMahan's California Rancho Cooking: Mexican and Californian Recipes. 

Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:

1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy
Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).

We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.

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Gold Stocks Are Leading Gold Lower

 

Based on the May 10th, 2013 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver articles.

 

T.S. Eliot called April “the cruelest month” in his famous poem, and without a doubt April was cruel to many gold investors. Sunshine Profits subscribers who followed our suggestions in April avoided a share of the pain.  Probably no one suffered more than hedge fund manager John Paulson. He is joined by hedge fund manager David Einhorn whose Greenlight fund took a big hit on its gold miners ETF holdings. Einhorn said recently what we would consider an understatement: “We were somewhat surprised by the swift decline in the price of gold in April.” If they were following fundamental valuations and analysis only, then that’s not surprising. Paying attention to the breakdown below the key support level at that time provided a sell signal.

 

According to reports, Paulson’s $700 million gold fund lost 27 percent in April due to leveraged bets on gold, when the price of the metal swooned by 17 percent over a two-week stretch. What must hurt is that the majority of the money invested in the Paulson gold fund is believed to be the billionaire’s own. Regulatory filings show that at the end of last year Paulson’s firm was the largest holder of the SPDR Gold ETF, with 21.8 million shares. Paulson made his fame and fortune after he made $15 billion for his firm in 2007 by betting against subprime mortgages before the housing collapse.

 

Paulson started his gold purchases in early 2009, betting that gold would rise due to the government money printing machines. Paulson took a $1.3 billion stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and $2.8 billion of GLD when the metal was trading around $950 an ounce. He was the biggest holder of both at the end of last year, the most recent figures available. Even with all the negative press gold is still trading more than 50 percent higher than when Paulson started investing in the metal.

 

To analyze if there is more pain to come for Paulson in the coming weeks let’s take a look at one of the more interesting ratios there are on the precious market – mining stocks vs. gold and gold to silver ratio (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

 

Before we being, we would like to point out that we believe that the long-term picture for gold remains bullish, as the fundamentals remain in place. This, however, does not mean that gold can’t move even lower temporarily.

 

The above chart (gold stocks’ performance relative to gold) provides a very bearish picture. Please note that the trading channel and the next horizontal support intersect at a point much lower than where this ratio is today. Of course, the existence of a target level by itself is no indication that it will be reached; the trend has to be in place as well. The point here is that the ratio has already broken below the previous late 2008 major low and is now a bit more than 5% beneath it. This is a major breakdown and it was confirmed. The implication is that the trend is still down.

 

With the trend being down and accelerating and the recent breakdown being confirmed, there is a good possibility that the miners will decline significantly once again.  This makes the previously mentioned target level a very important one. At this time it seems likely that the ratio will move to its 2000 low – close to the 0.135 level.

 

If gold stocks decline relative to gold as they did late in 2000, and gold declines to $1,300 or slightly higher, the target level for the HUI Index would coincide with a Fibonacci retracement level.

The GDX to GLD ratio chart (another way to look at the miners to gold ratio), seems to confirm that the mining stocks are clearly not leading gold higher also from the short-term point of view. Volatile back and forth daily moves have been the norm recently, and overall the situation is unchanged – still looks like a consolidation within a bigger decline and most likely is one.

 

Additional confirmation comes from the silver to gold chart which is an extension of our analysis from the essay on silver’s underperformance against gold.

We see there has still been no sharp drop in the ratio, which indicates that the silver bulls are not giving up just yet (or that lots of short positions are not being opened just yet). This is something, which is usually seen in the final part of a major decline, so it seems that this decline has some time to go yet.

 

Summing up, the situation for metals and mining stocks remains bearish and the correction is likely still not over. If you’re interested in our target levels for precious metals and would like to be informed when to get back on the long side of the market, please join our subscribers.

 

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

 

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold Investment & Silver Investment Website – Sunshine Profits

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

 

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

 

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Based on the May 10th, 2013 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver articles.

T.S. Eliot called April “the cruelest month” in his famous poem, and without a doubt April was cruel to many gold investors. Sunshine Profits subscribers who followed our suggestions in April avoided a share of the pain.  Probably no one suffered more than hedge fund manager John Paulson. He is joined by hedge fund manager David Einhorn whose Greenlight fund took a big hit on its gold miners ETF holdings. Einhorn said recently what we would consider an understatement: “We were somewhat surprised by the swift decline in the price of gold in April.” If they were following fundamental valuations and analysis only, then that’s not surprising. Paying attention to the breakdown below the key support level at that time provided a sell signal.

 

According to reports, Paulson’s $700 million gold fund lost 27 percent in April due to leveraged bets on gold, when the price of the metal swooned by 17 percent over a two-week stretch. What must hurt is that the majority of the money invested in the Paulson gold fund is believed to be the billionaire’s own. Regulatory filings show that at the end of last year Paulson’s firm was the largest holder of the SPDR Gold ETF, with 21.8 million shares. Paulson made his fame and fortune after he made $15 billion for his firm in 2007 by betting against subprime mortgages before the housing collapse.

 

Paulson started his gold purchases in early 2009, betting that gold would rise due to the government money printing machines. Paulson took a $1.3 billion stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and $2.8 billion of GLD when the metal was trading around $950 an ounce. He was the biggest holder of both at the end of last year, the most recent figures available. Even with all the negative press gold is still trading more than 50 percent higher than when Paulson started investing in the metal.

 

To analyze if there is more pain to come for Paulson in the coming weeks let’s take a look at one of the more interesting ratios there are on the precious market – mining stocks vs. gold and gold to silver ratio (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

 

Before we being, we would like to point out that we believe that the long-term picture for gold remains bullish, as the fundamentals remain in place. This, however, does not mean that gold can’t move even lower temporarily.

 

The above chart (gold stocks’ performance relative to gold) provides a very bearish picture. Please note that the trading channel and the next horizontal support intersect at a point much lower than where this ratio is today. Of course, the existence of a target level by itself is no indication that it will be reached; the trend has to be in place as well. The point here is that the ratio has already broken below the previous late 2008 major low and is now a bit more than 5% beneath it. This is a major breakdown and it was confirmed. The implication is that the trend is still down.

 

With the trend being down and accelerating and the recent breakdown being confirmed, there is a good possibility that the miners will decline significantly once again.  This makes the previously mentioned target level a very important one. At this time it seems likely that the ratio will move to its 2000 low – close to the 0.135 level.

 

If gold stocks decline relative to gold as they did late in 2000, and gold declines to $1,300 or slightly higher, the target level for the HUI Index would coincide with a Fibonacci retracement level.

The GDX to GLD ratio chart (another way to look at the miners to gold ratio), seems to confirm that the mining stocks are clearly not leading gold higher also from the short-term point of view. Volatile back and forth daily moves have been the norm recently, and overall the situation is unchanged – still looks like a consolidation within a bigger decline and most likely is one.

 

Additional confirmation comes from the silver to gold chart which is an extension of our analysis from the essay on silver’s underperformance against gold.

We see there has still been no sharp drop in the ratio, which indicates that the silver bulls are not giving up just yet (or that lots of short positions are not being opened just yet). This is something, which is usually seen in the final part of a major decline, so it seems that this decline has some time to go yet.

 

Summing up, the situation for metals and mining stocks remains bearish and the correction is likely still not over. If you’re interested in our target levels for precious metals and would like to be informed when to get back on the long side of the market, please join our subscribers.

 

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

 

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold Investment & Silver Investment Website – Sunshine Profits

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

 

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

 

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Gold “Could Retest $1322 Low”, G7 Meeting “A Chance to Consider More Monetary Activism”

SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices fell to two-week lows Friday, drifting lower towards $1440 an ounce during this morning’s London session before dropping sharply through that level, as stocks gained and most commodities fell as the Dollar strengthened against major currencies.

 

Silver fell to $23.34 an ounce, while copper prices ticked higher.

 

“The risk [for gold] is a break through support [will] test the $1322 low,” say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, who cited $1440 an ounce as a key support level.

 

Heading into the weekend, gold looked set for a 2.2% weekly drop by lunchtime in London, with silver down 2.6% on the week.

 

The world’s biggest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (ticker GLD) meantime saw the volume of bullion held to back its shares climb to 1054.2 tonnes yesterday, the first daily addition mid-March. The GLD has seen its holdings fall by more than a fifth since the start of the year, taking them down to four-year lows.

 

Deutsche Bank became the latest investment bank to cut its gold forecast Friday, with its analysts now projecting a 2013 average gold price of $1533 per ounce, down from the previous forecast of $1637. The 2014 forecast was cut from $1810 an ounce to $1500, with the 2015 forecast down from $1930 to $1450.

 

On the currency markets, the US Dollar rose above the 100 Japanese Yen mark for the first time in four years Friday. The Dollar also added to gains made against the Euro Thursday, which followed the release of the lowest weekly US initial jobless claims figure since January 2008.

 

“Gold’s been put a little bit under pressure because of the Dollar move,” says Afshin Nabavi, senior vice president at Swiss bullion refiner MKS.

 

“Physical-related demand had been very strong up to yesterday. The lower gold goes, the more physical demand will come in.”

 

“People in Hong Kong are still complaining about tight supply,” one dealer in Singapore told newswire Reuters Friday.

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock market meantime closed up nearly 3% Friday, hitting a five-and-a-half-year high as the Yen weakened against the Dollar.

 

The Bank of Japan last month announced that it will double the monetary base over the next two years, buying between ¥60-70 trillion of assets a year, after prime minister Shinzo Abe said policymakers will do “everything possible” to achieve an inflation target of 2%.

 

“In general, if you ease monetary policy, your currency will weaken,” International Monetary Fund deputy managing director Naoyuki Shinohara told an audience in Tokyo Friday, adding that poor fiscal discipline from the government risks giving the impression that is being financed by the central bank.

 

“Most central banks…still have a bias to ease,” says a note from Morgan Stanley.

 

“Given this disposition, it doesn’t take much in terms of downside surprises in growth or inflation to tip the balance for more central banks to pull the trigger for more easing.”

 

Today’s meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors near London is “an opportunity to consider what more monetary activism can do to support the recovery,” said UK chancellor

George Osborne yesterday, “while ensuring medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored”.

 

“Central banks are our best friends,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of world’s largest bond fund Pimco, said earlier this week.

 

“Not because they like markets, but because they can only get to their macro objectives by going through the markets…the hope is that improving fundamentals will validate what central banks have done.”

 

Gold mining companies meantime reduced their gold hedge positions during the last three months of 2012, according to the latest analysis from precious metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.

 

Ben Traynor

BullionVault

 

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

 

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

 

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.