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AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2013
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th April, 2013
Apple (AAPL): Fifth Time the Charm?
Shares of Apple (AAPL) had a nice rally of more than 3% today, but the stock closed just shy of its 50-day moving average (DMA). The 50-DMA has been a hard nut to crack since AAPL first closed below it in early October. In fact, over the 138 trading days since then, AAPL has only closed above its 50-DMA on three trading days, and there have been four prior rallies in the stock that failed just shy of or slightly below the 50-DMA. Will the fifth time be the charm?
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STTG Market Recap Apr 29, 2013
Stocks finished at an all time high on the S&P 500 as all news is good news continues to be the mantra. The S&P 500 finished up 0.72% and the NASDAQ 0.85% as the correction of a week and a half ago is now a distant memory. The swearing in of a government in Italy seemed to make markets happy as the Italian market jumped 2.2%. The European Central Bank meets this week and expectations are now high for a rate cut. The tech sector took the lead in U.S. markets Monday which would be a welcome development.
It looks like the channel that held for almost the entire time since mid November, is once again providing support for the S&P 500 - this would be good as it would help provide a downside marker. This is the 5th session the index has closed above it after the first detour below earlier in the month.
The NASDAQ - to the contrary - continues to be stymied by the same support line as it continues to hit it almost daily of late.
However this could change if we see a rotation into tech stocks. This sector has gone nowhere since the beginning of March even as the markets creep up, but today was a strong day in the sector.
We mentioned Apple (AAPL) in Friday's recap as a stock that could be poised to make a change in tone - it had a super day up 3% and ran all the way to its descending 50 day moving average. It also broke above its major downtrend line for only the second time since October 2012. If it can jump over this 50 day MA, and make a new higher high we might finally have the old Apple back - at least for a while.
Here are some other interesting charts per Dan Zanger's Chartpattern newsletter:
Workday (WDAY) is a tech stock that has a descending channel that it just broke out of, a trader could partake with a stop if the stock falls back into the channel which would signify a short term failure.
Alexion (ALXN) is a company in the red hot biotech space - it is building a potential base here, and a new high would be a nice entry as Zanger points out.
ARM Holdings (ARMH) is another tech company - it reacted very well to earnings, now bulls want to see it form a "bull flag" (sideways for a few days) and then a breakout over recent highs, marking Zanger's $46.90 buy point.
Original post: STTG Market Recap Apr 29, 2013
Gold “Getting Key Support” from Retail Demand, But Investor Confidence “Has Been Dealt Severe Blow”
GOLD started the week by edging higher Monday, trading around $1475 per ounce by lunchtime in London, as stocks also gained, US Treasuries were broadly flat and the Euro edged higher against the Dollar following news that Italy’s borrowing costs have fallen.
Strong demand for physical gold from private households meantime continues to cause bottlenecks and price premiums.
“The increased physical demand seen since the price correction supports the metal and affects the trading premiums,” says a note from German refining group Heraeus.
Gold traders in Dubai meantime continue to report premiums over the spot gold price of up to $10 an ounce for physical bullion.
“Retail demand…will be the key support for gold and is the main reason we expect prices to stabilize and move slowly higher,” says a note from HSBC, which this morning cut its 2013 average gold price forecast to $1542 an ounce, down from $1700 an ounce, while cutting its silver forecast from $33 an ounce to $26 an ounce.
“The capitulation in the gold price dealt a severe blow to investor confidence, which may take many months restore. Unless significant institutional demand returns to the market, we believe prices will struggle to get over the top end of our range of $1625.”
The world’s biggest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) saw a further 7.2 tonnes of outflows Friday, taking the total holding of bullion to back its shares to 1083.1 tonnes.
Since the starts of the year the GLD’s holdings have shrunk by nearly a fifth.
“In the past two weeks, as global economic data have generally underwhelmed, the ETF selling actually increased in velocity,” says a note from Nomura.
“This does not bode well for the remainder of 2013 for the ETF demand category…the recent downward move in inflation expectations and the lack of price reaction to both the Cypriot bailout and the changes in the Japanese monetary base have put gold’s investment rationale somewhat under pressure.”
On the New York Comex meantime, the so-called speculative net long position of gold futures and options traders fell to its lowest level since November 2008 in the week ended last Tuesday, weekly data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The spec net long – calculated as the difference between the number of ‘bullish’ long and ‘bearish’ short contracts held by traders classified by the CFTC as noncommercial – fell by 21% to the equivalent of 260.3 tonnes.
“The preceding week’s fall in net speculative length appeared relatively mild, so perhaps this past week’s decline was a catch-up,” says Standard Bank commodities strategist Marc Ground.
“Clearly, the futures market was not convinced that gold could sustain its upward momentum.”
The reported size of noncommercial futures and options positioning rose above 90,000 contracts for the first time since mid-February, only the second time this has happened since at least 2004.
Looking just at the CFTC’s Managed Money category, which includes players such as hedge funds, the Tuesday- reported number of short futures contracts in 2013 has averaged more than 50,000.
Between June 2006 and the end of 2012 the average was less than 16000 contracts.
“The key question in the near term is whether retail and jewelry demand can continue to counter [exchange traded fund] outflows and the rise in [Comex] gross shorts,” says a note from Barclays.
Silver meantime rose above $23.30 an ounce while the picture was mixed for other industrial commodities, with copper gaining but Brent crude oil down.
“We feel we are due for some sideways consolidation,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
“Resistance is at $24.25…[while] support is at the recent low of $22.07. If we breach support, the risk is an eventual target of $17.73, a full retracement back to August 2010.”
Italy saw its borrowing costs fall to their lowest level since October 2010 at an auction of 5 and 10-Year bonds this morning. The yield on 5-Year debt fell to 2.84%, down from 3.65% at a similar auction last month, while 10-Year yields fell from 4.66% to 3.94%.
Since last month, Italy’s parliament has re-elected Giorgio Napolitano as president, who in turn has nominated Enrico Letta as prime minister. Letta reached agreement on forming a government over the weekend, following a two-month deadlock after February’s inconclusive general election.
Any decision by Cyprus meantime to sell some of its gold bullion reserve would not necessarily be “the thin end of the wedge” that led to gold sales by other Euro members, according to Rhona O’Connell, senior analyst at metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.
Ben Traynor
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+
(c) BullionVault 2013
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
Goodbye to austerity
There is a new campaign to end austerity. First, the IMF lets it be known it has second thoughts about it; then we are told the threshold of 90% government debt to GDP which must not be crossed, set by Professors Reinhart & Rogoff, is based on an excel spread-sheet error. Lastly, Bill Gross of PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, tells us austerity is not working.
The new mood is spreading, to the relief of beleaguered countries like Spain and Italy. Austerity is painful, and politicians don’t like it because it makes them unpopular. Nor do Keynesian and monetarist economists, who see its failure as justification for more intervention.
Austerity, as practised by Western governments, involves maintaining public spending at the cost of the private sector. It is therefore hardly surprising that it leads to the destruction of the wealth-creation necessary to support government finances. Its only, if questionable virtue, is statistical: the maintenance of government spending ensures that its share of GDP does not fall, thereby not undermining “growth”. But government spending is simply a constraint on the productive private sector, because any economic resource diverted from it to pay for government is effectively squandered.
If an economy is to progress at all, there has to be as much austerity as possible, aimed squarely and solely at the government sector. Give individuals and businesses a lighter tax burden, the result of smaller government, and economic prospects will rapidly improve. Instead, the new anti-austerity mood will translate into a new licence for governments to relax their spending restraints.
Anyway, central banks including the ECB have shown they are ready to underwrite government spending if the markets are not prepared to, at almost zero interest cost. This explains why the yield on Italian debt, for example, has fallen despite the political drift of its non-government away from spending restraint.
One reason this is tolerated by bond investors such as PIMCO is the simple assumption that inflation is only a problem if there is a pick-up in demand. With all major economies either slowing or moving into recession that fear is increasingly remote. But history tells us this is a mistake, and that prices are capable of rising even in a recession, and a proper understanding of price theory also demonstrates the falsity of the assumption.
For the moment, ordinary people and their banks are showing a preference for money over goods, and have been since the banking crisis five years ago, which is why demand remains subdued. However, increasing risks to bank deposits from bank failures are likely to trigger a flight into physical cash and goods. And with economies all over the world stalling under the burden of the cost of government, this risk to banks and bank deposits is both increasing and becoming more immediate.
Complacency over inflation and interest rates also has to face the new impetus given to the expansion of the money supply implied by the abandonment of austerity. And this is merely another reason for monetary expansion, added to all the others. What we are seeing played out in front of us is no more than the compelling political reasons behind nearly every hyperinflation in modern history, which will almost certainly end in the collapse of today’s paper currencies.
Spanish Sovereign Spreads Drop Below 300 Basis Points
While the ratings agencies continue to lower their ratings and outlooks of European sovereign debt issuers, investors can't seem to get enough of the paper. Take the case of Spain. Last summer, traders couldn't dump the paper fast enough as spreads on 10-year Spanish sovereign debt widened out to more than 600 basis points (bps) above 10-year German Bunds. Now, less than a year later spreads on that same Spanish debt have narrowed by more than 50% to 294 bps. This represents the lowest level since December 2011.
Ironically, the last time spreads on Spanish debt were this low was in late 2011 in the aftermath of the MF Global meltdown followings its poorly timed bullish bets on European debt. The only difference between then and now is that back then spreads were widening out from much lower levels, while today they have come down significantly from even higher levels.
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Gold Rallies Up Near Important Levels
The price of gold has made a nice comeback from its bloodbath in mid-April. Below is an intraday chart of gold over the last 15 trading days. Following its 9%+ decline on 4/15, gold has rallied by more than 7%. Both Friday and today, the commodity has briefly traded above the opening price of 1,478.20 on 4/15 before pulling back. Going forward, if gold can break that level, the next level of interest is the closing price of $1,501 from 4/12. If you are looking to get long gold, it would probably be best to wait until the commodity can get back above at least one of these levels before making a commitment.
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True Test Is At Hand For Equities
By Poly
Earnings season is in full swing and judging by the near all-time highs of the equity markets you could be mistaken for thinking it was going well. Fact is it couldn’t be that much worse, as only 59% have beaten EPS estimates. If this pattern continues, then it will be the weakest earnings season since this bull market started in 2009. Top line revenue is much worse, with only 49% beating. This equates to an average gain of just 1.4% versus the prior year.
The soft economic data and weak future expectations speak directly to where we find both the Investor and 4 Year Cycles. Both are at extremes and are indicating that a top must be near (or already in). It’s generally at the top of the business Cycle that we find the equity 4 Year Cycle topping out too.
But before we see any evidence of the longer dated Cycle topping, we need to see the Daily Cycle break-down. Now on just Day 7 of a new (4th and likely final) Daily Cycle, I expect that we’re going to see the equity market turnover momentarily to form a sharp Left Translated Cycle. Once this Cycle tops and turns over, the fall should be relatively fast and severe.
But I just can’t rule out another marginal new IC high in the coming week, even though I can say with confidence that I expect that the equity markets are going to turn lower very shortly. Now that we’re 24 weeks into this Cycle, any new highs from this point forward would put this Investor Cycle into the top 3% of all Cycles (in terms of time to a top).
This as is an excerpt from the Weekend’s premium update from the The Financial Tap, which is dedicated to helping people learn to grow into successful investors by providing cycle research on multiple markets delivered twice weekly. If you’d like to receive real time alerts as well as the most up to date reports, you may want to take their FREE 15-day trial to fully experience what they offer. Coupon code (ZEN) saves you 15%.Related Posts:
Extreme Percentage Of Newsletters Short Gold
Royalty Free Website Images – Where To Find Them
The Bulls Head for the Hills
A very nice bounce back for the market last week sure didn't do much for investor sentiment. In fact, sentiment got significantly worse, with the percentage of bulls in our weekly market poll falling to just 38% versus 45% in the prior week. As shown below, the percentage of bears in our weekly market poll jumped to its highest level in a year. One thing's for sure -- the over-confidence and complacency that we typically see when the market is nearing a top is the complete opposite of what we're seeing right now.
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Gold's Plunge Ultimately Healthy for the Sector: Michael Gray
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Wall Street Is a Rentier Rip-Off: Index Funds Beat 99.6% of Managers Over Ten Years
It may seem uncharitable to note that only .4%--that's 4/10th of 1%--of mutual fund managers outperform a plain-vanilla S&P 500 index fund over 10 years, but that is being generous: by other measures, it's an infinitesimal 1/10th of 1%.
Most Hedge Funds Underperforming The S&P 500 For Fifth Year In A Row - Full YTD Performance (Zero Hedge)
Beginner's Strategy: Investing in Low-Cost Index Funds According to the folks at the Motley Fool, only ten of the ten thousand actively managed mutual funds available managed to beat the S&P 500 consistently over the course of the past ten years.Consider the following: a quick glance at Yahoo Finance reveals the average expense ratio for growth and income style mutual funds is 1.29%. As a result, approximately $1,883 of every $10,000 invested over the course of ten years will go to the fund company in the form of expenses. Compare that to the Vanguard 500 fund, designed to mirror the S&P 500 index, which boasts an annual expense ratio of only 0.12%, resulting in ten-year compounded expense of $154 for every $10,000 invested. Frequent contributor B.C. recently screened 24,711 funds on Yahoo Finance's fund screener and 17,785 funds on the Wall Street Journal's online screening tool. The results were sobering, to say the least: using a basic set of criteria, the first screen turned up a mere 5 managers who beat the S&P 500 index over five years. Using a slightly different set of criteria, the second screen found 71 funds out of 17,785 outperformed the index over ten years. That's .4% of managed funds, i.e. an index fund beat 99.6% of all fund managers.
So what do we get for investing our capital in mutual funds and hedge funds? The warm and fuzzy feeling that we've contributed the liquidity needed to grease a monumental skimming operation. Ten out of 10,000 is simply signal noise; in effect, nobody beats an index fund.
The entire financial management industry is a rentier arrangement: they skim immense profits and return no productive yield at all. This is of course a key characteristic of the neofeudal debtocracy that is the U.S. economy: various cartels and state fiefdoms operate rentier arrangements that skim a percentage of the national income, protected by the state and endless PR from any market forces or transparency.
B.C.'s analysis and commentary:
Here are the most recent results for the quarter ending Q1 '13 for mutual fund managers' performance vs. the total return to the S&P 500using the Mutual Fund Screener from Yahoo Finance (data from Morningstar):
First Screen Criteria:
All funds.
Manager tenure 5 years or more.
No load.
Management fee of less than 1%.
YTD: >5%
1-yr.: >10%
3-yr.: >5%
5-yr.: >0%
Number of managers who beat the S&P 500 over the past five years: 0
Second Screen Criteria:
All funds.
Manager tenure 5 years or more.
Load less than 2%.
Management fee less than 2%.
YTD: >5%
1-yr.: >10%
3-yr.: >5%
5-yr.: >0%
Number of managers who beat the S&P 500 over the past five years: 5
The screener includes a universe of 24,711 funds, which means that those who "beat the market" were in the fifth-order Pareto distribution of 2-3 out of 10,000.
Using similar criteria for the WSJ.com Mutual Fund Screener without the option of choosing manager tenure but including Lipper relative performance to peers, load-adjusted performance, and with an A-AAA rating, only 71 funds (fewer managers because of multiple fund management by a manager) of 17,785 matched or beat the S&P 500 over 10 years.
Once again, evidence of a third- or fourth-order Pareto distribution of 2-4 out of 1,000 being "winners."
The results of the past 10-12 years during the ongoing secular bear market clearly demonstrate that the "money management" industry exists primarily, if not now exclusively, for the benefit of those who "manage" other people's money, not the investors/shareholders of the funds.
By definition "hedge" funds are no better, i.e., they hedge investors' returns to no better than cash:
Hedge Funds: Going nowhere fast (The Economist)
"The past year has been another mediocre one for hedge funds. The HFRX, a widely used measure of industry returns, is up by just 3%, compared with an 18% rise in the S&P 500 share index. Although it might be possible to shrug off one year’s underperformance, the hedgies’ problems run much deeper.
The S&P 500 has now outperformed its hedge-fund rival for ten straight years, with the exception of 2008 when both fell sharply. A simple-minded investment portfolio—60% of it in shares and the rest in sovereign bonds—has delivered returns of more than 90% over the past decade, compared with a meagre 17% after fees for hedge funds (see chart). As a group, the supposed sorcerers of the financial world have returned less than inflation."
B.C.'s commentary resumes:
That there are so many "managers" in the game with AUMM (assets under mis-management), all manner of ETFs, and now pension funds "discovering" index funds and index ETFs, all trying to match or "beat the market", is a primary reason why the overwhelming majority of " managers" will underperform and thus add no value to an investors' portfolio.
Eventually, a growing plurality of so-called "investors" will discover that the stock market is not for wealth accumulation for the majority of "investors" but a wealth-transfer mechanism from the second 9-19% with any financial surplus to the top 0.1-1% who hold a disproportionately large share of financial wealth, and to the so-called money "managers" who benefit from fee income generated by the wealth-transfer process.
However, the resources of the financial services industry generated by fee income will continue to fund mass-media advertising/propaganda in the ongoing attempt to convince the top next 19% that they can "beat the market" if only they turn over their savings to the industry to "manage". Little do most "investors" know that they are funding the perpetuation of the industry's fraud, their own underperformance, and failing to match risk-adjusted returns of cash and fixed income after fees, taxes, and inflation over a cycle.
Now, imagine what would happen to the financial services and banking industries and financial print, broadcast, and online media were these unsanitized facts about dismal money "manager" performance to be widely reported and internalized by a significant minority or small plurality of investors or the public at large.
Thank you, B.C. In my analysis, the financial services industry is simply one of many state-enabled cartels and rentier arrangements that are immune to market forces, price discovery and the bright light of truth.
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Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:
1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy
Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).
We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.
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To receive a 20% discount on the print edition: $19.20 (retail $24), follow the link, open a Createspace account and enter discount code SJRGPLAB. (This is the only way I can offer a discount.)
Thank you, Karl L. ($50), for yet another astoundingly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.Thank you, Helen S.C. ($10), for yet another wondrously generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.
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By Mike Ber The following is a special
By Mike Ber
The following is a special weekend report from ForexAlerts.ca recapping the major pairs they cover, how they traded them this past week, and what they look forward next week. They recently launched their service and are offering a 50% discount for a limited time. To learn more about currencies and take advantage of this offer click here.
USD/JPY – Weekly close @ 98.02Bias: Bullish-Neutral
USD/JPY – Daily chart
Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:
Upside: 98.944
Range: 97.404 – 98.944
Downside: 95.408
Commentary:
USD/JPY is trading within the 97.404 – 98.944 range.
Our bias is Bullish-Neutral. The pair has very strong daily and weekly charts, but future outlook remains unclear, due to important upside barrier.
The pair is starting to pullback. It bounced off the support level we had on the charts, the low today was 97.55. It will probably bounce a little bit more before coming down more.
We think that the USD/JPY may continue to go down, and if we are right, we will be entering a long position @95.40 or around this area.
We wrote last week that: “We entered a long position on April 14th @97.71 and April 15th @96.67. Our target was 99.359, and we closed our long positions @99.32 on April 19th. We see one of two scenarios unfolding for USD/JPY. There are many sellers at 100, but if the magic number is broken the pair will probably extend its run to 102-103, 107, and beyond. We favor the second scenario with USD/JPY unable to break the figure of 100 this next attempt. We see the possibility for a significant retracement to 95 and 90 next. The recent inability for the pair to break through 100, led to a drop to 95.90 level. This time we may see a more serious reaction if the mood changes. During the next week general markets may determine the fate of the pair. The yen is typically seen as a safe-haven currency, and tends to benefit at times of market instability.”
The pair is starting to pullback. It bounced off the support level we had on the charts, the low on Friday was 97.55. It will probably bounce a little bit more before attempting to break resistance @ 97.40. We think that the USD/JPY may continue to go down, and if we are right, we will be entering a long position @95.40 or around this area. It will be probably a scary moment to buy when USD/JPY will be @95, because this will be the time when most of the traders will be frustrated of the pair’s inability to break 100. Vast majority will think that the pair won’t be able to break 100 in the near future.
Our USD/JPY trades in April:
April 1st, 2013 – Entered long @92.65.
April 3rd, 2013 – Took some profits – 50% @94.22 (Twitter update) PL: +157 pips profit
April 4th, 2013 – Closed position @96.212 – 50% (Twitter update) PL: +347 pips profit
April 14th, 2013 – Entered long @97.71 (Twitter update)
April 15th, 2013 – Added to long position @96.67 (level from the daily report) (average price 97.19)
April 19th, 2013 – Closed long position @99.32 (level from the daily report) PL: +213 pips profit
No Positions
EUR/USD – Weekly close @ 1.3028
Bias: Bearish
EUR/USD – Daily chart
Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:
Upside: 1.3106
Range: 1.28655-1.3106
Downside: 1.28655
Commentary:
EUR/USD is trading within a tight 1.28655 - 1.3106 range. We changed out outlook last week from Neutral to Bearish-Neutral.
For now it looks like EUR/USD is rolling over, and we target being @ 1.28655 with our short position.
Our trades EUR/USD in April:
April 4th, 2013 – Opened small short @ 1.28983
April 5th, 2013 – Added to existing short @ 1.3034
April 10th, 2013 – Added to existing short position @ 1.3118
April 15th, 2013 – Closed all the positions @ 1.3072 (updated via Twitter) P/L: -30 pips loss
April 25th, 2013 – Entered short position @ 1.3049 (targeting 1.28655)
USD/CAD – Weekly close @ 1.0163
Bias: Neutral
USD/CAD – Daily chart
Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:
Upside: 1.02323
Range: 1.0135 – 1.02323
Downside: 1.00495
Commentary:
USD/CAD is trading within the 1.0135 – 1.02323.
Our bias is still Neutral.
We mentioned to our members on Thursday that USD/CAD looks more and more bearish. We wanted to get into a short position if the pair climbs up to 1.02391 area of resistance. This scenario didn’t play out, and we couldn’t get a good entry. There is a very strong support @ 1.00495.
We continue to monitor this pair for good entry points. At this point there is no edge either way.
Our USD/CAD trades in April:
April 1st, 2013 – Entered Long @1.0137.
April 5th, 2013 – Took some profits @ 1.0195 (50%), targeting 1.02688 with the rest (Twitter update) PL: +58 pips profit
April 11th, 2013 – Stopped out @ 1.0105 PL: -32 pips loss
No positions
GBP/USD – Weekly close @ 1.5471
Bias: Bearish-Neutral
GBP/USD – Daily chart
Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:
Upside: 1.55956
Range: 1.50828 – 1.55956
Downside: 1.49464
Commentary:
No change in bias or outlook. The bias is still Bearish – Neutral.
The pair is trading within the 1.50828 - 1.55956 range. This range is wide because the recent upside move took out few resistance levels.
The pair may continue upside movement to 1.5595 level; if the short trade is crowded, there might be a squeeze to this level. We are not over leveraged, and even though we hold a losing position at the moment we prefer the pair to climb to 1.5595 area of resistance, where we will add 2/3 to our short position that we took off previously. Our view didn’t change, the charts are still bearish.
We believe that this is one of the cases where big explosive move doesn’t change the overall outlook. The development provides a better entry point.
Our GBP/USD trades in April:
April 1st, 2013 – Entered Short @ 1.5250
April 3rd, 2013 – Took profits @ 1.5075, (75%) still staying short with a small position, target 1.49089. PL: +175 pips profit
April 5th, 2013 – Added to short @ 1.5350 (average 1.53)
April 17th, 2013 – Closed 2/3 of our position @ 1.52481 (mentioned this level in the report, no Twitter update required) PL: +52 pips profit
We still hold 1/3 of the short position
EUR/JPY – Weekly close @ 127.95
Bias: Neutral
EUR/JPY – Daily chart
Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:
Upside: 130.90
Range: 126.955 – 130.90
Downside: 125.015
Commentary:
EUR/JPY is trading within the wide 126.955 – 130.90 range.
Our bias is Neutral. We are waiting on the sidelines until the next trend develops.
We wrote previously that EUR/JPY is waiting for the resolution on USD/JPY’s ability to challenge the barrier of 100. Our view didn’t change. At this point support @ 125.015 provides a good buying opportunity.
Our EUR/JPY trades in April:
April 15th, 2013 – Entered long @ 127.17 (level on the charts, no Twitter update required)
April 15th, 2013 – Added to long @ 125.63 (level on the charts, no Twitter update required) (average 126.40)
April 17th, 2013 – Closed all positions @ 127.15 (update via Twitter) PL: +75 pips profit
No positions
Mickey Fulp: Gold in an Increasingly Bi-Polar Market
Mickey Fulp discusses why Gold is becoming a bi-polar market, the effects of potentially lower Copper prices and long-term fundamentals of the commodity bull market.
Tiho Brkan: We are much closer to a major low which will be formed in the coming weeks”
Tiho comments on Gold, Silver, miners and his long-term bullish outlook for Sugar.
It's that time of the year...
Sell In May, But Don't Go Away - Seeking Alpha
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Sell In May, But Don't Go AwaySeeking AlphaThe Trader's Almanac and traditional investment philosophy will tell you to "Sell in May and Go Away". Based on Historical measures markets weaken after May and through the Summer, so making money becomes mo ...
Sell in May and go away? Not if you're Goldman Sachs - MarketWatch (blog)
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Sell in May and go away? Not if you're Goldman SachsMarketWatch (blog)“Sell in May and go away” season is nearly upon investors. Such strategies (also refer to the Halloween indicator) advises selling stocks in May and keeping the proceeds in cash, t ...
The earnings trend can be a strong one
Jobs Fall, Stocks Stumble. Next Up? It's Earnings Time. - Wall Street Journal
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Wall Street JournalJobs Fall, Stocks Stumble. Next Up? It's Earnings Time.Wall Street JournalEven before the data were released, many investors who had ridden the rally were saying the market had risen too far, too fast. The unemployment rate ticked ...
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